- 學位論文
影響中國大陸石油需求因素之研究
The influencing factors of the petroleum demand in China
摘要
改革開放後，中國經濟獲得高速成長的同時，也造成能源消費的增加；特別在石油消費結構逐年上升，目前已成為世界石油消費第二大國。根據英國石油公司統計，目前中國石油儲產比僅能供內需12年，這使得石油與能源需求缺陷變的非常的嚴重。所以，本研究企圖預測中國石油需求趨勢與透過分析總體經濟資料來解釋影響因素。 首先分析中國大陸石油供給與需求情形以及15年後的供需差異。結果發現，中國大陸未來15年石油需求量會隨時間呈現上漲趨勢，且未來生產與消費的缺口將會不斷擴大。另外，比較2005年東、中部與西部三大區域，顯示區域差異嚴重，其中東部地區支配中部與西部。主要的消費省份主要是遼寧、廣東、山東、浙江、與上海。 本研究利用Panel Data模型檢定影響1996~2005年30省的石油與能源需求因素，並藉由Hausman test得到固定效果進行分析影響石油與能源需求之經濟發展、產業結構與科技投入變數。實證結果發現，影響石油需求因素在於經濟發展的成長、第二產業中工業(除建築業外)與交通運輸產業結構比、政府財政對於科技研發投入。能源需求量影響因素除交通運輸結構比外，皆與石油需求顯示相同的結果。此外，在政策取向，包含中國大陸於2001年加入WTO與2000年西部大開發，對於石油與能源需求模型也有顯著的影響。
並列摘要
After the open market liberalization, China obtained the fast economic growth as well as the high energy consumption. In particular, as the amount of petroleum is increasing annually, China already has imported petroleum in 1993 and becomes the second-biggest country in the world now.According to the British Petroleum’s statistics, the ratio of the current reserve to production could provide only 12 years for China’s domestic demand. The deficient of the petroleum and energy demand will become very severe. Therefore, the study attempts to forecast the trend of petroleum in China and explain the influencing factors through analyzing the data of macro economy. This study firstly analyzes the supply and demand of petroleum during the period of 1996-2005 and predicts the future trend in the next 15 years. The findings indicate that the petroleum consumption will gradually increase in the next 15 years and the gap between supply and demand is constantly expanding. In addition, we also compare the amount of petroleum demand with Eastern, Center and Western regions in 2005. The uneven distribution of petroleum demand is very serious, the Eastern region dominating central and western regions. Major consuming provinces are Liaoning; Guangdong; Shandong; Zhejiang, and Shanghai. This study also explains the influencing factors for petroleum and energy demand by using the panel data with 30 provinces during the period of 1996-2005. The fixed model is used by Houseman test and indicates that variables of economy development; industrial structure and technology investment will influence the petroleum energy demand. The findings suggest that economy development; industrial sector (except for the construction industry) and transportation sector, and technology investment from government are main influencing factors for the petroleum demand. The energy model shows the similar result, however, the influencing of transportation sector is not significant. Besides, the policy implications, including World Trade Organization in 2001 and China Western Development in 2000, aslo have significant impacts on the potrolem and engery models.