我國產業部門能源效率、投入替代關係與技術變動偏向之探討

Energy Efficiency, Input Substitution, and Biased Technical Change in Taiwan’s Industrial Sectors

王淑卿(Shu-Chin Wang)

指導教授 ： 林師模

中原大學/商學院/國際貿易研究所/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6840/cycu200600068

摘要

能源與經濟發展有著相當密切的關係，幾十年來隨著經濟的蓬勃發展，能源早已成為經濟發展與提高國民生活水準所不可或缺之重要投入要素。第二次石油危機後，所歷經的一段低油價時期，因為碰上經濟的快速起飛，更是使得台灣對能源的需求增加更加快速，藉由觀察能源效率指標可了解能源投入與產業經濟活動產出的關係，在能源永續發展的目標下，各國皆致力於投入提升能源效率之研究，而基於國家經濟整體發展的前提下，如何兼顧能源效與經濟效益則是一大課題。
本研究的主要目的係要探討台灣主要製造業部門中之食品及飲料業、紡織業、紙、紙漿及紙製品製造業、塑膠製品製造業、金屬基本工業、非金屬礦物製品製造業、金屬製品製造業、化學製品製造業、化學材料製造業等九個產業，民國70年至民國92年間能源投入與其他投入間替代關係之變動情形，並同時觀察產業能源彈性值之變化趨勢，進而歸納探討產業能源使用效率的變化情形。
實證研究中運用GL成本函數模型估計我國各產業能源效率、投入替代關係及能源投入技術變動偏向之變化，根據實證結果，可以歸納得到以下幾項結論及經濟意涵：(1)根據能源投入自身價格彈性之估計結果發現，能源價格變動與非耗能源產業能源投入間之關係是呈現負向，即能源價格上升，非耗能源產業會降低能源投入，如果政府或產業要降低能源投入之使用，價格政策是可以考量的；而根據耗能產業能源投入自身價格彈性之估計結果，則顯示出能源價格政策不一定永遠有效。(2)根據能源投入與其他投入之交叉價格彈性之估計結果，各產業別因投入相對價格之變動，可觀察出能源投入與其他投入之替代關係。產業配合政府所制定能源政策可將投入間替代關係列入參考，因為生產組合改變對於產業之生產成本勢必產生影響，更進一步可能會影響產業或國家競爭力。(3)本研究根據能源產出彈性之估計結果討論各產業能源投入與產出間邊際效益之變動，根據估計結果觀察各產業各年度能源投入與生產總值之變動情形，得知歷年能源彈性值之估計結果下降，原因可能是邊際能源投入之減少或邊際產出減少，因不同形成原因，對各產業能源效率之變動的解讀也不同。(4)在本研究中估計各產業Allen-Uzawa偏替代彈性及Morishima替代彈性，透過Allen-Uzawa偏替代彈性之估計結果，可得知二投入間替代關係。相較於Allen-Uzawa偏替代彈性，觀察Morishima替代彈性可得知投入間替代關係的變動。(5)關於產業能源投入技術變動偏向之估計結果顯示除了紡織業外，其餘各產的技術變動呈現相對降低能源投入成本的情形，即生產技術變動有朝向節省能源投入的方向發展。(6)透過觀察各產業實際資本投入與最適資本投入之比，可以得知一產業是否有投資低估或過度投資的現象。投資不足或過度投資可能源自於大環境不景氣、產業結構轉變、生產技術的革新或政府政策的影響。

關鍵字

能源彈性值 ； 技術變動偏向 ； 技入替代關係 ； 能源效率

並列摘要

There is a close relationship between energy and economy development. Energy is an important input factor for enhancing both economy development and living standard in a country. After the second energy crisis, the world faced a certain period of low oil price. At the same time, the government put great afforts to improve the economy growth in Taiwan . It also stimulated the demand to energy in Taiwan. According to the empirical result, we observe the energy efficiency indicator to understand the relationship between energy input and the output in industries.
There are nine main industries in Taiwan’s manufacturing sector that were discussed in this study. We observe the input substitution, the trend of energy elasticity and the biased technical changes in industries through 1981 to 2003 in the empirical samples. The generalized leontief cost function has been used for the purpose. By the empirical result of energy elasticity, we would discuss the variation in energy efficiency in the industries.
Our empirical result reveals several conclusions. (i) According to the value of energy price elasticity, the relationship between energy price and energy input is negative in non-energy burning industries. It means that if the authorities want to decline the use of energy in non-energy burning industries, the price policy could be taken into account. (ii) According to the value of cross price elasticity, we could observe the variation of the substitution between energy and other inputs. It could be taken into account when new energy policies are published. (iii) According to the definition of energy output elasticity, the estimated value changes year by year could be caused by the decline in energy input or the output in industries. It has different explanations to energy efficiency while the causes are different. (iv)Allen-Uzawa elasticity and Morrishima elasticity are estimatied in this study. We can observe the relationship in inputs through the two elasticity. Moreover , we could get the changes in input substitution based on the valus of Morrishima elasticity. (v)Except the textile industry , the empirical result in biased technical changes shown that technical changes in the industries were good for improving energy-saving. (vi)According to the ratio of real capital input and optimal capital input, we could figure out that the investment in a industry is underestimated or not.

並列關鍵字

energy efficiency ； GL cost fucntions ； energy elasticity ； biased technical change ； input substitution

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