以歐元區總體經濟政策分析十年期公債殖利率及總體經濟政策目標之影響

本文希望透過觀察歐元創設二十年來，總體經濟政策及總體經濟情勢相互之影響，以分析歐元區總體經濟政策是否造成歐元區會員國經濟條件更趨於統合或更趨於差異？並試圖描繪歐元區經濟治理之遠景。本文首先瞭解歐元區總體經濟政策之現況；接著，透過十年期公債殖利率與總體經濟政策目標分析歐元區總體經濟政策對會員國之影響；最後統整歐元區經濟治理在總體經濟政策之議題及未來發展。透過殖利率與總體經濟政策目標的分析發現，歐元區的總體經濟政策對於貨幣指標外的經濟指標沒有明顯的趨同效果。說明現行歐元區的經濟治理應證最適貨幣區理論的實行，在沒有財政聯盟集中預算下，無法調和會員國間的經濟與產業結構的差異。也應證現行歐洲央行貨幣政策僅對貨幣指標上有效果，非貨幣指標較無明顯效果。

關鍵字

歐元；總體經濟政策；十年期公債殖利率；總體經濟政策目標；經濟治理

並列摘要

This study examines the interaction between macroeconomics policy and macroeconomics status since launch of the euro to further analyze whether the macroeconomics of Member States in the Eurozone has converged or diverged in the implementation of macroeconomics policy. In addition, it aims to depict the future prospect of the economics governance in the Eurozone. First, this study explores the present macroeconomics policy of the Eurozone. Second, it analyzes the effect of the Eurozone macroeconomics policy on the macroeconomics status of the Member States through the 10-Year Government Bond Yields and the macroeconomics goals. Final, the study summarizes the issues and the future development of the economics governance in the Eurozone under the framework of the macroeconomics policy. Through the analysis of the 10-Year Government Bond Yields and the macroeconomics goals, it is found that the macroeconomics policy of the Eurozone does not have an obvious convergence effect on economic indicators but do have convergence effect on monetary indicators. It shows that the present economic governance of the Eurozone should prove that the implementation of the Optimal Currency Area Theory cannot harmonize the differences between the economic and industrial structures of Member States without a centralized budget from the fiscal union. It also should prove that the ECB monetary policy is only effective on monetary indicators, and economics indicators are less effective.