美中在印太地緣戰略競逐對地區影響之研究—新古典現實主義的觀點

2017年11月美國川普總統首次訪問亞洲，提出「自由開放印太願景」(Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision)，將美國在亞太的地緣戰略利益拓展到印太，藉以制衡中國國家主席習近平2013年提出的「絲綢之路經濟帶」與「21世紀海上絲綢之路」倡議，美中在印太地區的戰略競逐於焉成形。區域國家面對美中的戰略競逐，多力求避免陷入選邊或聯盟困境，以維護最大國家利益；但臺灣囿於錯綜複雜的美中臺及兩岸關係，而更難在美中之間取得平衡。本研究透過新古典現實主義途徑，從國際體系、國內政治及決策者因素，並結合制衡、避險、扈從等地緣戰略選項，綜合分析地區國家及臺灣面對美中地緣戰略競逐的因應策略與作為。研究發現，美中基於緊密的雙邊經貿關係及全球議題合作需求，即使在美國總統川普及中國國家主席習近平等強人主政下，仍維持可控的競爭關係；但美中日益突出的競爭壓力，則加大地區國家的選邊與聯盟困境，臺灣更多了兩岸關係困境，以致挑戰更鉅。惟面對美中在印太地區競逐的高度不確定性，雙向動態平衡的避險戰略仍是較佳的地緣戰略選擇。

關鍵字

印太戰略；一帶一路；地緣戰略競逐；新古典現實主義

並列摘要

In November 2017, U. S. President Donald Trump visited Asia for the first time and proposed “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision” to expand the US geostrategic interests in Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific. The Vision is aiming to counterbalance the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” initiative, proposed by the Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013. The geostrategic competition between U.S. and China has formed ever since. Most of the countries in the region are using “hedging” approach to avoid the dilemma of choosing sides or alliances and better preserve their national interests. However, it is harder for Taiwan to take such an approach given the complexity of cross-Strait and U.S.-China-Taiwan relationship. This study uses neo-classical realism as approach to comprehensively analyze the response strategies of regional countries and Taiwan to the geostrategic competition between the United States and China from the international system, domestic politics, and decision-maker factors, combined with geostrategic options such as balancing, hedging, and bandwagoning. The study found that based on the close bilateral economic and trade relations and the need for cooperation on global issues, the United States and China still maintain a controllable competitive relationship even under the strong presidency of the U.S. President Donald Trump and the Chinese President Xi Jinping. However, increasing competition pressures between the United States and China has accumulated the dilemma of choosing sides or alliances among regional countries, and Taiwan’s challenges are even greater given the complexity of cross-strait relations. However, in the face of the high degree of uncertainty in the US-China race in the Indo-Pacific region, a two-way dynamic hedging strategy is still a better geostrategic option for Taiwan.