盈餘預測對公司績效受資訊透明度變化之影響探討

The impact of earnings forecast on company performance under the change of information transparency

沈元婷(Yuan-Ting Shen)

指導教授 ： 聶建中

淡江大學/商管學院/淡江大學暨澳洲昆士蘭理工大學財金全英語雙碩士學位學程/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2020.00325

摘要

本研究為探討盈餘預測對公司績效受資訊透明度之影響關係，採用
Gonza′lez, Teräsvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005) 所發展之縱橫平滑移轉迴歸模型 (Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model, PSTR)，以資訊透明度作為模型中的 門檻變數，觀察券商盈餘預測結果對公司績效是否存在平滑移轉效果，接著分 析券商預測值中預估營收、預估營業利益、預估稅後淨利及預估稅後 EPS 對公 司績效 ROE 的變化。本研究之實證結果發現，盈餘預測結果皆對公司績效產生 顯著之影響，然而只有預估營收這項預測值可看出會受到資訊透明度高低而有 所影響，其餘預測值皆不會受到資訊揭露程度影響。預估營業利益對公司績效 皆呈現負相關，預估稅後淨利及預估稅後 EPS 則對公司績效皆呈現正相關。

關鍵字

盈餘預測 ； 公司績效 ； 資訊透明度 ； 縱橫平滑移轉模型

並列摘要

This study investigates about the impact of earnings forecast on company performance under the change of information transparency, using Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model(PSTR) developed by Gonza′lez, Teräsvirta and van Dijk (2004, 2005), and take information transparency as threshold variable in the model. In order to analyze the impact of revenue forecast, profit forecast, net income forecast and EPS after tax forecast on ROE, we previously observed whether earnings forecast results have a smooth transfer effect on company performance. The results show that all earnings forecast items have a significant impact on ROE, however, only revenue forecast will be affected by the level of information transparency, and others forecast values will not be affected. Profit forecast is negatively correlated to company performance, net income forecast and EPS after tax forecast are positively correlated to company performance.

並列關鍵字

Earnings forecast ； Company performance ； Information transparency ； Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model

參考文獻

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