歐洲聯盟在亞太區域布局策略與挑戰-兼論對台灣之戰略意涵

近年亞太區域崛起，亞太區域經濟整合動能持續增強，自由貿易協定(FTA)作為各國重要經貿及外交政策工具，亦為經貿戰略甚或總體戰略重要一環，在亞太區域持續受到重視，並有「競爭自由化」現象。然而亞太區域各主要強權民族主義抬頭，時現緊張情勢，各主要國家加強整軍備戰，重視軍力建設與反制作為之剛性平衡措施，陷入「安全困境」，亞太地區似乎回到冷戰時期之氛圍。歐盟為非軍事性質之規範性強權(Normative Power)，而台灣位居海陸強權交界緩衝之關鍵位置並有優質柔性實力，如何共同與其他理念相近國家合作，維持區域和平穩定與繁榮為當務之急。本論文運用整合型分析方法，研析比較歐盟、美國與中國在亞太地區布局策略。隨著美中競合態勢增強(「印太戰略」V.S. 「一帶一路」)，在貿易及科技等領域摩擦或將成為新常態。歐盟在亞太地區透過FTA加強布局，並於2016年提出「全球戰略」（global strategy），強調在亞太區域將加強經濟外交及對亞洲安全角色，進而於2018年制定「連結歐亞策略」（Europe-Asia Connectivity），該策略可視為歐盟面對中國「一帶一路」倡議及美、日、印、澳等國「印太戰略」之回應對策。未來亞太地區之國際秩序將逐漸轉變為美、中、歐等強權共同主導之勢。美、中、歐三分天下，重構權力格局。三方均重視亞太市場及安全領域之佈局作為。崛起中之中國以及美中博弈情勢對歐盟及亞太區域國家則是機會與挑戰兼具，然而若美中博弈情勢惡化，將不利全球政經穩定與發展。美中之間倘相互敵意加深，有步入「修昔底德陷阱(Thucydide’s trap)」(既存強權與崛起強權發生爭戰)之可能，為爆發衝突之潛在根源。相關各方倘能尊重並設法超越彼此歧異，親自由開放與永續聯結發展理念，採用具大戰略視野且有包容性與互惠特色之開放性戰略區域主義，遠零和思維之偏激民族主義及經貿保護主義，此亞太之所以可興隆也；反之，可能招來嚴重爭端甚至戰禍。本文建議亞太國家應致力推動永續和平與發展大戰略，效法歐盟，跳脫中美對峙及兩岸對抗窠臼，以「非零和」(nonzero-sum)思維尋求在更大架構下化解各方矛盾。對於中小型國家而言，建構FTA網絡，如同建構無形的國家安全網絡。臺灣生存與發展取決於能否平衡並連結海洋與大陸勢力的利益，且將地緣戰略優勢極大化，建議推動「臺-日-韓-星-歐盟-印度 FTA/ECA」倡議(Rimland Chain Mega FTA)，運用具和平戰略思維之「開放區域主義」，以FTA(ECA)加強連結與交流合作，支持善治與永續發展，發揮柔性平衡效果，協助化解區域爭端，調解強權間在貿易等議題之對立與相互抗衡作為，制約強權之武力運用，走向和解共生，進而建構調和及融合美、中、歐及相關各方願景與利益並有助全球治理之「印太-歐自由貿易區/共同體」，獲致權力平衡共治、利益均霑共享、價值共構共遵，走出「安全困境」，避免美中終將陷入「修昔底德陷阱」之「自我實現預言」(self-fulfilling prophecy)成真，共同追尋博拉圖的最適境界(Pareto optimality)。

關鍵字

大戰略；自由貿易協定；柔性平衡；修昔底德陷阱

並列摘要

The rise of the Asia-Pacific region through economic growth and gradual integration is of global significance and has made the region a new international center of gravity. However, a growing tide of anti-establishment populism, combined with nationalism and the security dilemmas posed by tensions between Chinese assertiveness and U.S. unilateralism, have created concerns among many countries in the region. The EU, regarded as a normative power and a strong advocate of global free trade and peace, could serve as an important and inspirational example in the region. This dissertation synthesizes approaches in international relations to examine how the competition between China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the U.S. Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy has affected the EU and Taiwan, and how the EU and Taiwan could respond to these challenges. As great power competition in the region intensifies through the U.S.-China trade war and tech war (in 5G and other areas), there is a real possibility of falling into Thucydides’ Trap, in which the current tensions between a rising and an existing power give way to more serious conflict. The growing trend in the region toward hedging strategies shows that attempts by the rising and dominant powers at co-opting other countries have created increasing unease. One possible avenue out of this situation lies in facilitating the evolution of a grand strategy that forgoes a zero-sum mindset in favor of strategic open regionalism, which aims to preserve a peaceful status quo and minimize threats while reconciling and maximizing the interests of concerned parties. The European Union (EU) is stepping up its support for regional integration and tends to utilize tools of economic diplomacy such as FTAs to pursue its strategic interests. In doing so, it may help to form a new regional balance of power. Following the adoption of the EU Global Strategy (EUGS) in 2016, the EU in 2018 announced its Europe-Asia Connectivity Strategy, which could serve as a counterweight to China’s BRI and the US FOIP strategy if the EU supplies it with the necessary resources. In short, the EU’s Europe-Asia Connectivity Strategy offers another option to Indo-Pacific countries amid increasingly fierce confrontation between the US and China. Moreover, the EU and Taiwan, which holds a key geopolitical position in the region, are both praised for their soft power and could make potentially attractive strategic partners, working with other like-minded countries to form an alliance for peace and sustainable development. Such an alliance could spur soft balancing among regional powers, restrain geopolitical rivalries, and advance inclusive economic growth through the formation of FTA networks that support good governance and sustainable development. Derived from the EU’s own integration experience, this grand strategy for the region would focus on strengthening regional architectures in order to reduce tensions and hostilities among big powers while accommodating and furthering the interests of all parties concerned. Realizing a strategic open regionalism which functions under the principles of reciprocity and inclusiveness to respect and transcend differences between political communities would promote sustainable development and peace, and benefit both stronger and weaker states in the region. To accomplish this strategy, against the complex backdrop of triangular competition among the US, EU and China, this paper proposes the creation of a “Rimland Chain Mega FTA” consisting of Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, the EU and India, which would serve as a buffer zone and bridge encouraging soft balancing between the U.S. and China. Further steps could including the creation of an “Indo-Pacific-European Community” that could accommodate the interests and visions of both big and small powers, avoiding the self-fulfilling prophecy of Thucydides’ Trap and realizing Pareto optimality in the form of sustainable peace and development for all parties.