夏季降雨量對短期葉菜類交易價量之預測分析與評估

受全球氣候變遷影響，極端天氣事件頻率增加，臺灣夏季受颱風及午後短延時強降雨常造成中南部短期葉菜類產區嚴重受損。本研究以2010年至2019年10年間夏季汛期之消費地批發市場每日短期葉菜類批發交易價量數據，及重要短期葉菜類產區之日降雨量歷史觀測資料，運用複迴歸分析探討蔬菜產區夏季降雨量對於蔬菜交易量及價格之影響與分析，並建立預測模型。研究成果顯示，降雨量對交易量及平均交易價格存在影響遞延關係，且降雨量、短期葉菜平均交易量及胡蘿蔔交易量對於次週短期葉菜類平均交易量存在顯著相關，降雨量增加會帶動二週後短期葉菜類平均交易價格漲幅。相關研究成果期能運用於蔬菜產區生產與防災，依氣象預報資訊預測夏季蔬菜產地生產量，配合相關政策推動，以穩定夏季短期葉菜類市場供應。

關鍵字

短期葉菜類；蔬菜價格；農業氣象災害

並列摘要

Because of the global climate change in all over the world, we have an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Taiwan’s summer typhoons and short-time heavy rains in the afternoon often cause severe damage to short-term leafy vegetable production areas in the central and southern regions. In this study, the daily short-term wholesale price data of leafy vegetables in the consumer market wholesale market in the summer flood period from 2010 to 2019 for a total of 10 years. Historical observations of daily rainfall in important short-term leafy vegetables production areas, using multiple regression analysis to explore vegetable production areas. The influence and analysis of summer rainfall on vegetable trading volume and price are studied, and we build a prediction model finally. Research results show that rainfall has a deferred relationship with market transaction volume and average transaction price. Rainfall, short-term leaf vegetable average transaction volume and carrot transaction volume are significantly related to the short-term leaf vegetable average transaction volume in the next week. Increased rainfall will drive After two weeks, the average transaction price of short-term leaf vegetables increased. Relevant forecasting models and research results can be applied to the production and disaster prevention of vegetable production areas. According to weather forecast information, the production of summer vegetable production areas can be predicted, and the promotion of related policies to stabilize the short-term supply of leafy vegetables in the summer market.