台灣地區生育率、男女勞動力與經濟成長

Fertility Choice, Gender Differential Labor Efforts and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan

葉哲全(Che-Chuan Yeh)

指導教授 ： 林佩蒨

淡江大學/商學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2007.00379

摘要

近年來少子化問題普遍出現在許多國家的發展過程中，台灣地區在世代變遷與教育普及效果發酵後，不僅生育觀念發生轉變，婦女也積極投身勞動市場，種種因素都導致生育率持續的惡化，過往文獻對於此問題分為二派見解：一方認為生育率成長有助經濟發展；另一方卻認為生育率成長滯礙經濟成長。近年來鄰近各國與歐美先進國家越來越重視人口危機不利於永久發展的論點，紛紛祭出提振生育政策來提高生育率。本文為瞭解台灣地區生育率、異質勞動力與經濟成長的關係，收集近55年的時間序列資料以實證方法分析經濟成長模型，變數包含：人均國內生產毛額、婦女勞動參與率、男性勞動參與率以及總生育率。

本文先以單根檢定確定變數均為I(1)的時間序列後，利用Johansen 最大概似估計法找出一組共整合向量來代表變數長期關係，結果顯示婦女勞動參與率以及男性勞動參與率均有助於經濟成長，並且婦女勞動參與率的貢獻彈性上大於男性勞動參與率，而生育率雖不利於經濟發展但是影響程度不大。另外，本文以誤差修正模型、衝擊反應函數分析與預測誤差變異數分析來探討變數的因果關係與中短期的調整過程，結果顯示生育率為經濟成長之內生變數，男性的所得成長有助於提升生育率，生育率和婦女勞動參與率則呈現負向因果關係，並且婦女勞動參與率影響生育率的效果大於生育率影響婦女勞動參與率的效果。

關鍵字

生育率 ； 婦女勞動參與率 ； 經濟成長

並列摘要

The phenomenon of declining fertility rate has been observed in Taiwan, one of the newly industrialized countries. To understand the reason behind, this thesis applied cointegration methods to estimate and test the time series data on fertility choice behavior, labor efforts (female and male labor force participation) and per capita output in Taiwan, over the period from 1951-2005.

The results show that there exists a long run relationship among these four variables and both labor efforts contribute to economic growth. Even though the results indicate the rising fertility rate will deteriorate economic performance, it hasn’t become a burden yet. Also the results of employing vector error-correction models (VECM), variance decomposition and
impulse functions have showed that fertility is endogenous in the system and female labor force participation is important to explain for the economic growth and declining fertility rate.

並列關鍵字

Fertility Choice ； Female Labor Force Participation rate ； Economic growth

參考文獻

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