我國人口老化現象與勞動供給預測之分析及其對資產需求變化之影響

Population Aging, Forecast of Labor Supply, and Effect on Asset Demand: The Empirical Analyses of Taiwan

林俊宏(Chun-Hung A. Lin) ； 王光正(Kuang-Cheng Andy Wang) ； 徐慶柏(Ching-Po Hsu)

《長庚人文社會學報》 3卷1期 (2010/04) Pp. 171-219

https://doi.org/10.30114/CGJHSS.201004.0007

摘要

人口老化已成爲當前全球關切的議題。2000年時已開發國家人口零歲平均餘命爲75歲，較開發中國家人口零歲平均餘命64歲，高出11歲左右。而我國人口零歲平均餘命亦爲75歲，已達已開發國家水準。這些數據顯示台灣人口老化的問題也有愈來愈嚴重的趨勢。然而，由於人口結構的改變並不完全等同於「勞動力」的改變，而勞動力爲一國經濟發展之重要因素，故勞動力結構之發展實不可不予以重視。本文研究的重點之一即爲對勞動力年齡結構未來發展之趨勢，提供深入的預測及分析。而人口老化的問題亦將使得人們對財富持有的形式發生改變。本文的實證結果發現我國未來勞動力確實有減少之趨勢，而高齡勞動者比例將提高，致使勞動力平均年齡增加，每單位勞動力所需供養的老年人也將增加。本文亦利用SUR模型(Seemingly Unrelated Regression)進行聯立方程式的估計，若將資產分爲：債券、貨幣、股票及土地等四類，人口老化因素對債券及股票需求存在顯著而正向之影響，但對貨幣及土地需求則爲不顯著。

關鍵字

人口老化 ； 勞動供給 ； 資產需求

並列摘要

Aging population is an issue concerned worldwide. The 75-year-old average life expectancy of developed countries is higher than the developing countries by 11 years. Taiwan's average life expectancy is also 75 years reaching the standard of the developed country, which indicates that the aging problem is an important issue nowadays in Taiwan. However, change of population structure does not necessarily imply that labor force structure will be altered. Due to the importance of the labor force to the economic development, the structure of labor force is too crucial to be ignored. This study therefore analyzes and predicts the age structure of labor force. On the other hand, the alternation of population structure does mean that the possession of wealth will be different. The empirical results focused on Taiwan show the decline trend of labor force and higher percentage of senior labor making the average age of labor force older. Last, but most important, the labor dependency ratio will become higher. The SUR (Seemingly Unrelated Regression) model is applied in this work, and the wealth is categorized as bonds, money, stocks and land. Population aging significantly increases the demand for bonds and stocks, while the impact on the demand for money and land is not significant.

並列關鍵字

Populationaging ； Labor Supply ； Asset Demand

參考文獻

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