本研究探討人口結構、經濟成長與房地產市場之間的關係,並利用統計方法將一些無法觀測但會同時影響三項變數的潛在外部因素加以排除,以求得人口結構與經濟成長真正會影響房地產市場需求的方向與大小。為了排除過去一般傳統文獻所採取的迴歸分析可能造成的錯誤結論,因此本研究策略上,我們不直接衡量社會與文化層面的潛在因素,因為這些因素缺乏客觀的衡量指標。所以,我們改由間接的方式,尋找一組工具變數(Instrumental Variables),來排除潛在因素可能造成的偏誤。 我們採用資料數據期間為1978年到2009年來進行實證分析。經過工具變數調整後,不論是以固定資本形成中住宅房屋民營平減指數,或是以建築工程業生產指數當作被解釋變數,人口成長皆是構成房地產市場需求極為重要之因素,而其他重要的解釋變數,則為通貨膨脹率與五大行庫放款平均利率。我們的解釋是,當人口數量變多時的確對於房屋的需求量就會呈現正向需求;通貨膨脹率上升時人們就會紛紛的把資金轉向投資在認為可以保值與抵抗通貨膨脹的房屋上面;而當銀行借款利率變高時,人們自然而然就會減少借款去購買房屋。
This study investigates the relation between the population structure, economic growth, and housing market in Taiwan. We apply the method of instrumental variables to control possible endogenously estimating biases from traditional regression methods used in previous studies. As a result, we could obtain the real main factors on the demand for housing market. The data we used is from 1978 to 2009. After the adjustment by using the method of instrumental variables, the result shows that the index of private house on capital formation and the index of building industry are significantly affected by the population growth rate, inflation rate, and the average loan interest rate. Our explanation is as follows. First, when the population grows, the demand for housing also increases. Second, in the periods of highly inflation, the housing market can provide a function for saving real wealth. Finally, as the average loan interest rate is high, the cost of buying houses also increases, and hence the demand for housing decreases as well.