近年來,「人口老化」(Population ageing)問題已從少數已開發國家擴大成為國際性議題,許多學者利用各種研究方式來分析人口結構改變所帶來的衝擊與影響,各國政府也試著採取相關政策與措施來改善或預防人口老化所帶來的衝擊。本文利用總體經濟模型,動態可計算一般均衡分析模型(Computable General Equilibrium , CGE)來分析台灣人口老化對整體經濟及福利的影響。 本研究將情境設計分為六種,包含BAU基準情境及其他五種模擬情境,依照國內外學者相關文獻做為情境設計的依據。研究結果發現,各模擬情境之下,總體經濟指標,包含實質GDP(Gross domestic product)、民間消費、實質投資、實質進口等均呈現下滑的趨勢。社會福利層面的分析結果而言,整體福利所受的衝擊較小,貧富差距不會因此而擴大。為有效預防人口結構改變所帶來的衝擊,政府應適時的實施相關政策,以減緩對整體經濟或產業的負面影響。
Population ageing has expanded from, an issue of a few developing-countries, into an international one over the last few years. Researchers have analyzed the impacts and influences following the changes of the population structure with a wide variety of research methods; governments have also adopted related policies and measures to improve or prevent the negative effects brought by population ageing. The present study analyzed the influences of population ageing on the whole economy and the welfare in Taiwan with macroeconomic models and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The findings demonstrated that the changes of the population structure in Taiwan lead to negative effects. Indices including real GDP, private consumption, real investment and real imports all show descending trends. In terms of social welfare, the impacts are comparatively slighter, and the wealth gap doesn’t expand. To effectively prevent the harmful impacts accompanying the changes of the population, the government should draw up related policies to abate the negative effects to the whole economy and industry.