台灣實施兩稅合一對經濟發展與所得分配之事後影響評估

An Ex Post Evaluation of Taiwan's Integrated Income Tax Reform on Economic Development and Income Distribution

楊子菡(Tzu-Han Yang) ； 蘇漢邦(Han-Pang Su) ； 徐世勳(Shih-Hsun Hsu) ； 馬惠娟(Hui-Chuan Ma)

《人文及社會科學集刊》 19卷3期 (2007/09) Pp. 403-438

https://doi.org/10.6350/JSSP.200709.0403

摘要

國內外以量化方法分析「兩稅合一」稅制改革效果之研究，多屬事前之模擬評估。而我國已於民國87年實施兩稅合一有必要對政策效果之良進行事後的檢討與解析。
本研究以我國兩稅合一實施後之88年產業關聯表及國民所得資料，進行政策之反向模擬。藉由在CGE模型架構上加上所得流動設計，掌握家計、企業、政府與國外四部門問之所得流向，並將稅率變動之衝擊連結到企業的財務決策機制，再加上資本結構內生化的設計，突破過去國內CGE模型較少涵括之直接稅誘因效果與企業財務調整效果之分析，更完整的反映稅制改革之影響。

關鍵字

兩稅合一 ； 可計算一般均衡模型 ； 資本報酬結構 ； 所得分配

並列摘要

The empirical studies on the effects of income tax integration policy have been largely conducted from the angle of ex ante policy simulation. However, since Taiwan has adopted income tax integration reform in 1998, ex post assessment becomes essential for further policy modification.
This study evaluates the income tax reform by building up a CGE model and placing a reverse shock back to the status of no reform. Then the comparison is made between statistical reality and the estimates of no reform. The data of national income and input-output table of 1999, the year that the new income tax system was applied for the first time to business and individual incomes generated in 1998, are adopted as the benchmark equilibrium. The descriptions of income flows among different sectors and of different sources of capital financing are carefully added into the model. Business finance policy and dividends policy are endogenized. With all these new features, the impacts of the tax reform can be fully revealed.

並列關鍵字

income tax integration ； Computable General Equilibrium Model ； capital return structure ； income distribution