中共能源安全戰略之研究── 從穩定石油供給來源之發展為例（1993－2005）

The Study of China’s Strategy for Energy Security – A Case Study on the Development of Stabilizing of Oil Supply (1993-2005)

方家麟(Chia-Lin Fang)

指導教授 ： 曾復生

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2006年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2006.00542

摘要

中共經濟的穩定成長，石油是關鍵，沒有穩定的石油供給，中共經濟就少了支撐發展的後盾與棟樑，使得能源因素一直在中共經濟發展的過程中具有不可磨滅的決定性作用。
中共自1993年正式成為石油淨進口國家，十餘年來，對石油的需求日增，在國內自有產量受限的情況下，積極的向外出走，尋求油源，成為其不得不然的戰略抉擇。為此，中共藉由軍事互動、經貿互惠、合作開採以及大國外交等手段鞏固與產油國家的邦誼，並藉此獲得充足的石油供應。
在獲取穩定石油供給的同時，中共也必然陷入與世界各強權國家發生「國家利益」爭奪的複雜環境中，美日集團的圍堵、世界新興強權油源的爭奪以及石油資源的耗竭，在在都對其穩定石油供給來源造成嚴重的衝擊與挑戰，所幸，危機亦是轉機，分析中共的長期應對作為，無論是戰略上突破美日集團的封鎖、運輸通道的確保、珍珠鏈式的布局，或是與印日等國油源的爭奪，及至技術操作層面上油源的開發與經營、戰略石油儲備系統的建立、研發替代能源與立法節能等手段，在國際原油短期間內不會開採殆盡的前提下，筆者論斷中共穩定石油供給來源的關鍵不在別人，它──操之在中共自已的意願。
中共綜合國力的成長已然使其位列國際強權之林，合縱連橫、折衝罇俎功力的成熟運用，未來將使中共在國際原油市場上佔有的份量日增；為了發展，中共需要穩定的國內外環境，為了發展，中共需要穩定的石油供給，因此中共短期內不會破壞現有的國際和平，委曲或是一途，但求全卻是目標的極致。

關鍵字

中共 ； 能源戰略 ； 國家利益 ； 穩定供給來源

並列摘要

To the stable growth of China’s economy, oil is the key issue. It believes that China would lose its anchor and pillar of economic arteries if it had not steady supply of oil. It can be said that the factor of energy resources plays a crucial role in the developing process of China’s economy.
China has become a net importer of crude oil since 1993, and its demand for oil is steadily on the increase in last decade. Since the situation that the production of the PRC’s owns sources is quite limited, China actively strides out of mainland and looks for the overseas oil sources, and it has become the only choice for the tactics of energy security. Accordingly, China adopts numerous specific tricks, such as military exchanges, reciprocal trade, cooperatively exploiting nature resources and power diplomacy, to consolidate the relations with those oil-producing countries.
In the meanwhile, to obtain the sufficient oil supply, China simultaneously lapses itself into the complicated environment of scrambling national interests with other world powers. Some situations such as the siege from US-Japan alliance, the struggles with merging powers for oil sources and the rapid exhaustion of natural resources, those foregoing are troublesome problems China has to handle, not only have caused the strong impacts on the acquisition of oil but also formed a harsh challenge on its energy strategies.
Fortunately, those crises also can be regarded as its turning points. The analyses and observations on China’s long-term strategies for above circumstances, show that no matter the scheme to surmount the US-Japan alliance’s siege, assuring the flowing without obstruction on the conveying channel, the use of string-of-pearls layout, and the contend for oil sources against other countries like Indonesia and Japan, and even some artifices include the technical manipulations for developing and managing of oil sources, the setting of system of Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), the research and development of alternative energy and economizing on the consumption of energy by legislation, it asserts categorically that the key factor that China’s steady supply of oil is not somebody else, but handle by its own willing under the presupposition that the international crude oil won’t be exhausted completely in short time.
The growth of comprehensive nation-power of China has already made itself into the list of world powers, and that China skillfully masters the diplomatic tacks will let its position in international oil markets become more important in the future. China needs a stable domestic and overseas environment in order to development, meanwhile, it also needs the steady oil supply; therefore, China will not break the peace in the near future, it could be the best strategy to compromise out of consideration for its general interest.

並列關鍵字

China ； oil strategy ； national interests ； steady supply sources

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