兩岸金融MOU簽署對股價影響之研究-以台灣上市公司金融類股為例

The Impact of Cross-Straits Financial MOU on Taiwan Listed Market Prices - Case Studies of the Listed Financial Sectors in Taiwan

陳亨通(Heng-Tung Chen)

指導教授 ： 趙慕芬

淡江大學/管理學院/企業管理學系碩士在職專班/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2011.00673

摘要

台灣金融業多年來一直處在過度競爭、利潤微薄的經營環境，造成台灣金融市場經營條件惡劣，營運規模及經營績效成長有限。加上台灣產業逐漸移往大陸經營情況日增，使中國成為台灣最大的投資與經貿往來對象，台灣金融業處在此一產業西移潮流環境下，自然順勢以中國金融市場為優先發展標地。另一方面，中國近年來經濟蓬勃發展，內需市場規模日益擴大，金融市場之經營條件商機無限、發展潛力無窮，與台灣金融市場經營環境相較具絕對之優勢。

因此，台灣金融業未來至中國金融市場經營與發展，將使台灣股市投資人抱以高度之期待，本研究乃以台灣上市金融業為研究對象，採用「事件研究法」進行民國98年11月16日兩岸簽訂金融MOU事件，是否影響台灣上市金融業股價之實證研究，並進一步探討金控業與非金控業、已於與未於中國設立辦事處（代表處、子公司）之銀行業、證券業及保險業等股價之異常報酬及差異性。藉以瞭解台灣股市投資人，是否肯定台灣金融業未來至中國金融市場經營與發展。

本研究兩岸金融MOU之簽訂，影響台灣上市金融業股價之實證結果如下：
一、會影響台灣上市金融業股價，在簽訂日產生顯著正向異常報酬，在簽訂後產生顯著負向異常報酬。
二、會影響台灣上市金控業及非金控業股價，在簽訂日皆產生顯著正向異常報酬，且平均而言金控業異常報酬之表現優於非金控業；在簽訂後皆產生顯著負向異常報酬，且平均而言金控業異常報酬之表現劣於非金控業。
三、對於已經在中國設立辦事處（代表處、子公司）的金融業者，在簽訂日對利多的表現都優於未設立辦事處（代表處、子公司）之金融業者。

關鍵字

事件研究法 ； MOU ； 異常報酬

並列摘要

Taiwanese financial industry has been in the business environment with excessive competition and low profits. Because of adverse circumstances in Taiwanese financial market, scale of operation and growth of business performances are limited. On the other hand, Chinese booming economy in recent years resulted in the increasing size of domestic market. The business opportunities and development potential of the financial industry are seemed infinite. Chinese financial market is absolutely advantageous in comparison with Taiwanese financial market environment. Therefore, more and more Taiwanese financial companies tend to regard Chinese financial markets as priority target.

Taiwanese financial companies are trying to take part to Chinese financial market. Taiwanese stock market investors also hold a high degree of expectation. This research objects are the listed financial sectors in Taiwan. Event-study method is adopted to investigate whether the Cross-Straits financial MOU signed on November 16th 2009 would make impact on stock prices of Taiwanese listed financial sectors. This research will focus on investigation into the differences of abnormal returns between financial holding companies and non financial holding companies. And setting representative offices in China or not would cause abnormal returns for banks, securities firms and insurance companies. Through this study, we might know the attitudes of stock investors toward the issue of MOU signed by Taiwan and China.

As for the issue whether the Cross-Straits financial MOU would make impact on stock prices of Taiwanese listed financial sectors, research results are as follows:
1. MOU would impact stock prices of Taiwanese listed financial sectors. On the signing date, the significant positive abnormal returns generated. After the signing date, the significant negative abnormal returns generated.
2. MOU would make impact on stock prices of Taiwanese listed financial holding companies and non financial holding companies. On the signing date, the significant positive abnormal returns generated. On the average, abnormal returns of the financial holding companies performed better than those of non financial holding companies. After the signing date, the significant negative abnormal returns generated. On the average, abnormal returns of the financial holding companies performed worse than those of non financial holding companies.
3. On the signing date, stock prices of Taiwanese financial sectors which set representative offices in China performed better than those who did not set offices in China.

並列關鍵字

Event Study ； MOU ； Abnormal Returns

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