台灣工業部門CO2排放拆解及政策工具效果之分析

自1990年以來，由於CO2排放減量已蔚為國際共識，而各國工業部門為達成減量目標，在減碳策略方面，冀能在維持經濟規模下，同時兼顧改善產業結構、提升能源效率及改善碳排放係數等目的。據此，本研究運用算術平均迪氏指數法(Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index Method, AMDI)拆解分析上開因素及人口等對於臺灣工業部門中三個子業別(非金屬礦物製品製造業、化學材料製造業、金屬基本工業)CO2排放變動之貢獻程度。實證結果發現，經濟規模大抵係各業別CO2排放增量的主要因素，而部門結構及能源密集度則是導致各部門CO2排放減少的主要因素。由於組成因素對於CO2排放量之貢獻度會受到不同政策工具之影響，是以本文乃依據上開拆解實證結果，採用近似無相關迴歸模型(Seemingly Unrelated Regression，SUR)推估相關政策工具對於各組成因素的影響。實證結果發現，貿易自由化僅與非金屬礦物製品製造業中的能源密集度呈現負向顯著，表示此一政策未能提升該產業能源使用效率之技術。貿易條件對化學製品製造業的部門結構有正向顯著的影響，表示出口成長推動該業產值擴張並導致碳排放增加。據此，提出以下政策意涵，包括:未來貿易自由化宜朝提升產業能源效率方向調整；宜發展低碳排放，高附加價值之產業；經濟出口成長宜搭配節能減碳之策略。

關鍵字

算術平均迪氏指數法； CO2排放量；政策工具

並列摘要

Since 1990, the reduction of CO2 emissions has become an international consensus. In order to achieve the reduction target, the industrial sectors of various countries hope to maintain the economic scale while improving the industrial structure, improving energy efficiency and improving the carbon emission coefficient. Based on this, this study uses the Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index Method (AMDI) to analyze the contribution of the factors and population to the changes in CO2 emissions in the three sub-sectors of Taiwan's industrial sector. (Non-metallic Mineral Products Manufacturing、Chemical Material Manufacturing、Basic Metal Manufacturing) The empirical results show that the economic scale is the main factor for the increase of CO2 emissions in most of the sub-sectors, and the sector structure and energy intensity are the main factors that cause the reduction of CO2 emissions in most of the sub-sectors. Since the contribution of composition factors to CO2 emissions will be affected by different policy instruments, this study use Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) to estimate the influence of each composition factors to CO2 emissions from relevant policy instruments. The empirical results show that trade liberalization have a negative and significant effects on the energy intensity of Non-metallic Mineral Products Manufacturing, indicating that this policy fails to improve the energy efficiency of this industry. The terms of trade have a positive and significant impact on the sectoral structure of Chemical Material Manufacturing, indicating that export growth has driven the expansion of the industry's output and led to an increase in carbon emissions .Based on this, this study proposes three suggestions: trade liberalization should be adjusted to improve the direction of industrial energy efficiency; low-carbon emissions and high value-added industries should be developed; economic export growth should be accompanied by strategies for energy conservation and carbon reduction.