卡特政府與中共建交決策之研究

本論文以艾里遜的決策理論即理性行為模式、組織行為模式和政府政治模式為主要分析架構，並輔以國際體系理論與聯盟理論，提出若干假設，以檢視相關理論對本論文的適用性。在理性行為模式中，布里辛斯基的對華政策即聯中制蘇符合美國的利益，是收益較大，付出較小的選項，因而被總統所採納。在組織行為模式中，國安會的政策建議自季辛吉以來更能了解總統的需求，並能以其專業統籌發展政策計畫和策略，使其主導對華外交決策過程。在政府政治模式中，布里辛斯基因掌握行動管道，藉以瞭解卡特的想法進而影響，並拉攏官員支持自身觀點，因此獲得總統授權主導美中關係正常化。綜前所述，本論文的主旨為卡特推動美中關係正常化時，既想增進與中共的關係，但又想維持與臺灣的交往，但在「聯中制蘇」的大戰略下，卡特為與中共建交而犧牲我國的利益，美國國會亦制定「臺灣關係法」來保障我國的安全。

關鍵字

美中關係正常化；卡特政府；理性行為模式；組織行為模式；政府政治模式

並列摘要

This dissertation aims to analyze the decision-making process of U.S.-China Normalization in the Carter Administration. The analysis is based on Graham Allison’s three decision-making models which are the Rational Actor Model (RAM), the Organizational Behavior Model (OBM), and the Governmental Politics Model (GPM), and utilizes the theories of the international systems and alliance. Hypotheses are generated accordingly to examine the application of the relevant theories. Concerning the RAM, Brzezinski ’s policy toward China was to engage the PRC to counter the threat from the Soviet Union, which was the option with the highest benefit and the lowest cost, wand was adopted by president Carter. In light of the OBM, the National Security Council (NSC) has better understood the requirements and expectations of the president, and provided advices on relevant policies since Kissinger’s induction. The function of the NSC was upgraded to dominate the decision-making processes. From the perspective of the GPM, Brzezinski dominated the Normalization between the U.S and China by harnessing the action-channel to influence Carter’s strategic thoughts and by seeking other officials’ support to persuade the president. In conclusion, Carter would like to normalize the relations between the U.S. and China while maintaining relationship with Taiwan. But to counter the threat of the Soviet Union, Carter prioritized the engagement with China which sacrificed the diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Hence, in supplement, the U.S. Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act to protect Taiwan.