中國經濟的再平衡 ─ 新成長典範對撒哈拉以南非洲貿易與成長之影響

Rebalancing China's Economy: The Impact of the New Growth Paradigm on Sub-Saharan Africa's Trade and Growth

夏同良(Tolga Yaz)

指導教授 ： 柯大衛

淡江大學/國際研究學院/臺灣與亞太研究全英語碩士學位學程/碩士(2019年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2019.00724

摘要

在1980年代和1990年代出色的表現之後，中國經濟成長趨緩，經濟驅動力從出口和投資轉向消費和政府支出。這種相較緩慢但有助於持續成長的轉型卻可能對其貿易夥伴產生負面溢出效應，特別是商品出口國，其中許多是在非洲。本文評估了中國在貿易和成長方面對撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)經濟體致力再度平衡的經濟影響。運用2000至2017年期間31個國家的成長迴歸模型和面板數據 (panel data) 進行分析，結果顯示，中國是SSA許多經濟體的重要貿易夥伴，其經濟放緩可能對該地區產生不利影響。進而發現，中國人均GDP成長率每下降1％會導致SSA人均成長率下降0.17-0.31％。另外，某些重要係數指出一個強勁發展的非洲區域間貿易網絡，抵銷了部分中國再平衡溢出效應所帶來的潛在影響。

關鍵字

中國 ； 再平衡 ； 溢出效應 ； 出口 ； 經濟成長 ； 撒哈拉以南非洲

並列摘要

After the remarkable economic performance of the 1980s and 1990s, China’s growth has been slowing and the economic drivers have been shifting from exports and investment to consumption and government spending. This transition with slower, but more sustainable, growth is more likely to generate negative spillovers to its trading partners, particularly commodity exporters, many of which are in Africa. This thesis assesses the economic impact of China’s rebalancing efforts on sub-Saharan African economies with respect to the trade and growth. Using a growth regression model and panel data analysis that covers 31 countries for the period 2000 to 2017, the results show that China is a significant trading partner for many sub-Saharan African economies, and its economic slowdown is likely to adversely affect sub-Saharan African growth in the future. It is found that a one-percent decrease in China’s GDP growth per capita leads to 0.17-0.31 percent decrease on the SSA’s per capita growth. On the other hand, some significant coefficients point to a robustly developing African interregional trade network that offsets to an extent the potential impact of the China’s spillovers from its rebalancing.

並列關鍵字

China ； rebalancing ； spillovers ； export ； economic growth ； sub-Saharan Africa

參考文獻

Anderson, Derek, Jorge Ivan Canales Kriljenko, Paulo Drummond, Pedro Espaillat, and Dirk Muir. 2015. Spillovers from China Onto Sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from the Flexible System of Global Models (FSGM). Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network. SSRN Scholarly Paper.

Bandara, Amarakoon. 2016. Growth spillovers: Do China’s Trade and Investment Matter for African Growth? Tanzania: United Nations Development Program

Blagrave, Patrick, and Esteban Vesperoni. 2016. Spillover Implications of China’s Slowdown for International Trade. International Monetary Fund. IMF Spillover Notes.

Busse, Matthias, Ceren Erdogan, and Henning Mühlen. 2014. China’s Impact on Africa - the Role of Trade, FDI and Aid. Ruhr University Bochum, Institute of Development Research and Development Policy (IEE).

Casanova, Carlos, and Ruben Nizard. 2017. China-Africa: Will the Marriage of Convenience Last? Coface Economic Publications.