一次性生育津貼與生育率：以台灣縣市層級資料為例

低生育率在世界各國已為一普遍現象，我國近年來更是生育率倒數國之一。為了改善生育率低迷的情形，中央政府及地方政府皆祭出諸多生育政策，設法提升我國生育率。其中由各地方政府所辦理之一次性生育津貼是最常見、直接的生育補助政策。然而，究竟生育津貼政策能否有效刺激生育率，是個實證問題，值得深究。本論文檢視生育津貼政策對總生育率的影響。本研究首先整理各縣市1990年至2010年生育津貼實施情況，並利用內政部和行政院主計處「人力資源調查」與「家庭收支調查」資料，以縣市層級資料檢視各縣市實施生育津貼政策和生育率之間的關係。分析方法採用差異中的差異法（Difference-in-Difference，DID），以未有發放生育津貼縣市為對照組，依序分析1990-2006年和2007-2010年間生育津貼政策對生育率的效果。根據本文實證結果發現，發放生育津貼對於刺激生育率是有效果的，其中1990-2006年和2007-2010年間有實施生育津貼的縣市，與沒發放津貼的縣市相比，生育率差異分別為千分之60和100。假設政策效果為線性，則津貼金額需擴大七萬至九萬元才能促使婦女於其一生中多生產一胎。此金額相當於現行桃園市的生育補助。然而，比對該市自生育政策實施以來的成效，發現政策效果並非線性，因此除了提高津貼金額外，尚需搭配其它措施，才能有效提高生育率。

關鍵字

生育率；生育政策；生育津貼

並列摘要

The low fertility rate has become a common phenomenon in many countries around the world. In recent years, Taiwan has been one of the countries with the lowest fertility rate. To increase fertility, both central and local governments have adopted many fertility policies. One of the pro-natal policy which has been carried out by the local governments is the one-time baby bonus. Whether the allowance can effectively stimulate fertility is an empirical question, which is worth studying. In this thesis, I examine the effect of the baby bonus on fertility rate. First, I collect the information of the implementation of the one-time baby bonus from 22 counties in Taiwan in 1990-2010. Using the data from the Ministry of the Interior and the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics of the Manpower Survey and the Survey of Family Income and Expenditure, I apply Difference-in-Difference method to analyze the effects of the baby bonus policies on total fertility rate in 1990-2006 and 2007-2010, respectively. The comparison group is the counties that do not have the baby bonus policy in 1990-2010 while the treatment group is the counties that have the baby bonus in 1990-2010. The results show that the baby bonus is effective in stimulating fertility. Specifically, compared to the counties who do not offer the bonus, those who have offered the bonus has more total fertility rate in 1990-2006 and 2004-2010. The effect is about 0.06 to 0.1. In addition, the results suggest that the effect of the policy is not linear. According to the DID estimates, if the policy effect is linear, the amount of allowance has to be increased to 70,000 to 90,000 to induce a woman to have additional child birth. The amount is equivalent to the current childbirth subsidy policy in Taoyuan city. However, checking the total fertility rate after the implementation of the policy in Taoyuan city, I do not find the supportive evidence that the policy effect is linear. As a result, in addition to the allowance, other pro-natal policies are needed to effectively increase the fertility rate.