習近平對台政策的決定性因素

The Determinants of Xi Jinping's Policy on Taiwan

戴立恒(Li-heng Tai)

指導教授 ： 郭建中

共同指導教授 ： 王國臣(Guo-Chen Wang)

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2017年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2017.00878

摘要

中共自1949年以來，對台政策基調即圍繞「一個中國｣原則，自鄧小平提出「和平統一、一國兩制」的對台政策後，歷任領導人更是依循此中心思想提出對台政策方向。2012年「十八大」後，習近平成為中共第五代領導人，有別於過去領導人，習受其經歷影響，更加重視「制度化」、「法治化」，特別是在對台事務上有著更豐富的經驗。習主政初期，大抵呈現「胡規習隨」，除堅持「九二共識」為兩岸交流對話的政治基礎外，並持續推動對台經貿、文化的多元交流。
2016年台灣及美國總統大選皆出現政黨輪替，民進黨蔡英文政府、美國共和黨川普政府的執政，勢必對中共的對台政策產生更多變數及影響，總統蔡英文當選後，雖未承認「九二共識」，但宣示將在中華民國的憲法架構下、以及既有基礎上持續推動兩岸關係發展，惟中共認為「九二共識」是雙方的共同基礎，沒有「九二共識」將會導致協商中斷，「九二共識」亦從「議題」轉變成為「前提」，蔡政府能否把握兩岸發展的新穎性，進而創造新形勢下的新基礎，殊值吾人持續關注之焦點。
本論文採用文獻分析法與比較研究法，探討1949年毛澤東建立中共政權開始至胡錦濤時期的對台政策，以及習近平主政後到2017年上半年間的涉台言論與對台工作重點，並從兩岸的內、外部因素，以及美國的兩岸政策等層面進行研究分析，探究中共在面對我新政府執政後可能對台政策的發展方向。

關鍵字

習近平 ； 九二共識 ； 一中原則 ； 一國兩制 ； 對台政策 ； 大陸政策

並列摘要

Since 1949, PRC’s Taiwan policy is based on the "One China principle". After Deng Xiaoping proposed the fundamental policy of "peaceful reunification,one country with two systems" for Taiwan, all the other successive leaders have proposed their policy direction towards Taiwan according to this central idea. The group led by Xi Jinping came into power since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in 2012. Unlike previous leaders, due to the influences of his past experiences, Xi paid more attention to“systemization” and“legalization”. In addition to that,he has rich experiences in Taiwan related affairs.Since Xi has been in power, he mainly followed Hu’s rules that adhered to the "1992 consensus" as the political basis of cross-strait dialogue and continued to promote economic and culture exchanges with Taiwan.
There were presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States in 2016. Both of them have been through the political party rotation at that time. Certainly it would make some impacts and variables on the CPC policy toward Taiwan because of the DPP Tsai Ingwen government and the United Republican Trump government. Although Tsai did not recognize the "1992 Consensus" after the election, she declared that the government would continue to promote the development of cross-strait relations under the framework of the Constitution of Republic of China and on the basis of the existing situation. However, the CPC considered that the "1992 Consensus" was the common ground of both sides. It will lead to the interruption of consultation without the "1992 consensus".In this way,it has become a "premise" rather than a "topic".Hence, much more sustained attention would be put on Tsai government that whether it is able to grasp the novelty of cross-strait development and create a new situation under the new situation.
This paper adopts the literature analysis and comparative research method in order to discuss the policies toward Taiwan from the beginning of CPC regime in 1949 that established by Mao Zedong to Hu Jintao's day,along with the research of Taiwan-related speeches and the work priorities of Taiwan in the first half of 2017 from Xi Jingping.Then explore and analyze the development direction of CPC policy toward Taiwan in the face of the new government from the aspects of internal and external factors,the US cross-strait policy,and so on.

並列關鍵字

Xi Jinping ； 1992 consensus ； One China principle ； One country, two system ； Policies forTaiwan ； Mainland policy

參考文獻

1、邱垂均，中共「十八大」後美「中」台關係之研究，淡江大學大陸研究所碩士論文，2015年6月。

2、李瓊莉，美國「重返亞洲」對區域主義之意涵，全球政治評論第三十九期2012 No.39，頁91。

3、沈明室，中共東南亞戰略的美國因素，全球政治評論第十八期(2007)No.18，頁84。

7、李明凱，胡錦濤時期中共對台的文化戰略，淡江大學大陸研究所碩士論文，2015年6月。

11、施文，中共「十八大」後對台政策的持續與變遷，淡江大學大陸研究所碩士論文，2015年6月。