中國大陸公營銀行民營化之經濟分析

The Economic Analysis of the Privatization of Mailland China's Public Banks

劉育霖(Yu-Lin Liu)

指導教授 ： 麥朝成

淡江大學/商學院/產業經濟學系碩士班/碩士(2007年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2007.00795

摘要

公營事業民營化是各個國家在經濟發展上必經的過程。本論文以近年來外資參股中國大陸銀行為例，探討公營銀行民營化過程中，若政府將公股出售給外資，對於國內的社會福利會有怎樣的影響。
本研究分為理論與實證分析兩部分，理論模型以翁永和、羅鈺珊與劉碧珍(2003)之寡佔模型為基礎，分析當公營銀行對外資釋股時，對市場產量、利潤與社會福利之影響；在實證分析部份，以貸款相關比率與金融結構比率來刻劃銀行發展變數，以表示中國大陸之公營銀行民營化程度，並以實質國內生產毛額作為衡量社會福利之指標，分析銀行發展與經濟成長之間的關係。
研究發現，理論上，若公營與民營銀行之生產效率差異不大，政府對外資部分釋股為其最佳策略；實證上，可發現金融結構比率對於經濟成長在短期調整過程確實有正面助益。

關鍵字

民營化 ； 外資參股中國銀行

並列摘要

The privatization of the government enterprise is a necessary process in economic growth for each country. This paper takes the foreign capital investment in China banks as an example, and discusses that if the government sells the government share to foreign investor, how it would influence the domestic social welfare in this process of privatization.
This paper includes both theoretical and empirical works. Theoretical model is based on oligopoly market structure in an open economy. We analyze the impact of the process of privatization on the banks’ outputs, profits, and domestic social welfare. Empirically, we take LIR (loan intermediary ratio) and FSR (finance structure ratio) as the indexes of the bank development to represent the extent of the privatization of Mainland China’s government banks, and adopt the real GDP as the index of the social welfare. Then we analyze the relationship between the bank development and the economic growth in Mainland China.
The results of this research are as follows: theoretically, partial privatization is the best policy to the government if the difference of production efficiency among government and private banks is not too large. Empirically, FSR has positive impact on the economic growth in the short turn.

並列關鍵字

Privatization ； Foreign investment in China Banks

參考文獻

邱俊榮與黃鴻(2006)，「公營廠商民營化的最適釋股比例分析」，《經濟論文叢刊》，34：2，245-259。

翁永和、羅鈺珊與劉碧珍(2003)，「市場結構與最適民營化政策」，《經濟論文叢刊》，31：2，149-169。

李建強、宏福聲與黃柏濃(2005)，「金融發展與經濟成長的關係會消失嗎?－門檻迴歸模型之應用」，《經濟研究》，41：1，45-74。

Brooks, C.(2002), “Introductory economics for finance”, Cambridge University Press.

De Fraja, G. and Delbono, F.(1989), “The public firm as an instrument for regulating an oligopolistic market”, Oxford Economic Papers, 41, 283-301.