中共海軍之南海軍事戰略研究

Military Strategy of the CCP(Chinese Communist Party)Navy in the South China Sea

許惟順(Wei-Shuenn Shan)

指導教授 ： 陳建甫

淡江大學/國際研究學院/中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班/碩士(2012年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2012.01192

摘要

南海地區蘊藏豐富的石油礦產，隨伴引發主權領土的認定問題，使得週邊聲索國紛紛強化該區域的武裝，並向美國靠攏，藉軍演、經濟合作等手段來保障自己的權益，近年中共科技發展受到經濟躍進日趨蓬勃，從科技帶動武器發展，武器影響局勢轉變，局勢造成戰略姿態的角度來觀察中共，在民族意識的帶動，以鞏固國家利益為出發點，對於新的海權思考，可以發現是由南海作為出發點，藉由新一代水面、水下艦艇陸續問世以及近年積極發展航母的武力擴張行為，無非是要在南海建立堅實的力量來與區域中歧見國家相互抗衡形成戰略優勢。
本研究主軸以「文獻分析法」（documentary analysis method）為主，藉由專業出版品的論述，闡釋中國的戰略目的與方向、海軍發展與轉變、南海戰略轉型與未來影響；另外以專家學者深度訪談(Expert Depth Interview)之看法加強文獻之論証，佐以情境分析法(Scenario Analysis)為証，從中引證出中共海軍建軍之轉變與南海戰略二者的聯帶關係，以作為研究中共海軍南海軍事戰略與南海各國爭議之關連性，探討中共南海戰略未來發展之走向。
本研究發現有關南海爭議處理模式均為外交與國防的途徑處理，而其爭議處理模式所衍生的結果與局勢緩和或緊張有絕對的關係，運用國防處理爭議其結果將使局勢趨向緊張，而相對運用外交途徑處理爭議的結果將使局勢趨向緩和，而藉由這種緊張與緩和的關係，演繹出南海地區邁向衝突模型，從模型中可以了解邁向衝突的起因、過程及最後戰爭或和平的走向，以此模型理論強化國防、外交兩種途徑處理區域衝突與爭議的合理性，並從專家訪談中發現未來中共南海未來趨勢將置重點於「航母為強化指管能力的起點」、「航、潛雙軌發展」、「嚴防奪島強化投射兵力」、「利用非戰爭性軍事行動強化戰略作為」等方向，主要發現中共海軍以提升海上軍事力量為基礎，強化本身作戰能力，增加反對勢力的對抗能量，鞏固主權並維護中共能源的命脈，確保石油航線暢通。
基於南海問題越來越受到國際重視，在有利於我國未來建立南海問題發聲權之基礎下，對於南海現行政策與作為本研究有幾點粗淺建議：1.目前政府應朝向建立國家戰略層級的海洋戰略2.強化東沙、太平島開發3.提升兩島之駐防力量，等三項建議，可提供相關業管政府機構參考策進，以利未來我國在南海的發展。

關鍵字

中共海軍 ； 專家學者深度訪談法 ； 情境分析法 ； 戰略分析

並列摘要

The South China Sea is known to hold abundant crude petroleum resources. This has led to many sovereign and political controversies in the region, and prompted countries bordering the South China Sea to emphasize their ability to project regional power while at the same time allying with the US through joint maneuvers as well as economic co-operation to ensure their interests. In recent years the PRC has achieved considerable technological advancement on the strength of their booming economic growth in the past decades, and this has brought their weapons development to another level. As a result, their role in the South China Sea has changed to a certain extent. With Chinese nationalism on the rise, consolidating national interests has become their first priority, and their sea power strategy has changed. The PRC’s real intention now is to use the South China Sea as an opportunity to aggressively expand its sea power by developing new lines of surface and subsurface naval vessels as well as aircraft carriers. There is no doubt that the PRC intends to build up a formidable military power that will enable it to hold opposing forces at bay and enjoy absolute superiority in the region.
This research relies primarily upon the “documentary analysis method,” referencing professional publications to discuss the direction and purpose of PRC military strategy, how the CCP Navy is developing and changing, and changes in the country's South China Sea military strategy as well as the impact thereof. This research will also include an “Expert In-depth Interview” to further reinforce the points made through documentary analysis. In addition, with the help of “Scenario Analysis” we can trace evidence of a correlation between changes in the CCP naval development strategy and its South China Sea military strategy. This study will go on to examine linkages between the PRC’s naval strategy and its disputes with South China Sea nations, an on that basis will explore the future direction of the PRC’s military strategy vis-à-vis the South China Sea.
Through this research, we have come to a realization that sovereignty disputes in the South China Sea are handled in one of two ways. One approach relies on diplomacy, while the other relies on military force, and the impact of the approach employed determines whether problems will be mitigated or exacerbated. A military approach is more likely to intensify problems, while a diplomatic approach is more likely to mitigate them.The interplay between escalation and defusing of tensions has given rise to a model for movement toward conflict. This model enables us to understand the reasons for conflict, the processes thereof, and whether the situation will move in the direction of war or peace. This model can facilitate the development of a more reasonable basis for deciding whether to use military or diplomatic means to handle regional conflicts and controversies. In the expert’s interview, we learn that future PRC policies on South China Sea are likely to stress several points: aircraft carriers as the starting point for strengthening command and control capabilities; a dual focus on development of both surface and subsurface vessels; preventing seizure of islands by other nations, and strengthening the nation's capacity to project military power; and use of non-bellicose military action to bolster the nation's strategic undertakings. The CCP (PLA) navy regards enhancement of its sea power as the foundation for achievement of the following goals: upgrading of its military capabilities; improvement of its ability to hold opposing forces at bay; consolidation of its national sovereignty; maintenance of the PRC's access to petroleum; and assurance that petroleum shipping lanes are kept open.
South China Sea controversies are now becoming a global issue. It would thus be beneficial for our country to issue a public statement on the South China Sea issue. We have several preliminary suggestions for current South China Sea policy: 1. The government should move toward establishing a national-level strategic plan for the South China Sea. 2. We should develop basic infrastructures in the Pratas Islands and on Taiping Island. 3. We should boost our ability to defend these two islands. It is hoped that the above will serve as useful reference for the ROC authorities, and that they will promote our country’s development in the South China Sea.

並列關鍵字

(CCP/PRC/ PLA) Navy ； Expert in-depth Interview ； Scenario Analysis ； Military Strategy Analysis

參考文獻

蔡明彥，〈美國東亞軍事優勢地位的挑戰：中國「反介入」與美國「反反介入」的角力〉，全球政治評論，第21期，2008年1月)，頁75。

許志嘉，〈中國新睦鄰外交政策：戰略意涵與作為〉，遠景基經會季刊，Vol.8 No.3 (2007/07)，頁52。

何思慎，〈從釣魚台事件看日中海洋利益的競逐〉，戰略安全研究，第66期，2010年10月，頁8-12。

甘浩森Roy Kamphausen、施道安Andrew Scobell 編，解讀共軍兵力規模，台北：國防部史政編譯室，2010

甘浩森Roy Kamphausen、施道安Andrew Scobell、賴大衛David Lai 編，超越台海~台灣問題外的解放軍任務，台北：國防部史政編譯室，2009