中國的人口戰略：從一胎化轉軌到二胎化之研究

China’s Population Strategy: How One Child Policy Transitioned into Two Child Policy

滕昀(Yun Teng)

指導教授 ： 曾怡碩

淡江大學/國際研究學院/國際事務與戰略研究所碩士班/碩士(2018年)

https://doi.org/10.6846/TKU.2018.00970

摘要

2015年年底，中國政府宣布將在2016年開放「全面二孩」，實施長達三十年的「一胎化」政策，終於劃下句點。「一胎化」政策執行以來，成功地解決中國在過去三十年擔心的人口爆炸與糧食短缺問題，但也讓現今尚在開發中的中國面臨勞動力不足、扶養比攀高、人口結構失衡的危機。「全面二孩」的開放，則是解決這些問題的對策。
　　在了解原因的同時，本論文將研究重心，放在中國「一胎化」政策轉軌到「全面二孩」的過程。本論文研究採文獻分析法，依次分析中國人口政策變化的過程、剖析政府、學界與民間的三角互動，最後檢視政府、學界與民間對政策的態度，是否會影響政策轉變。本研究發現如下：首先，政府與學界查覺，中國社會自改革開放後，因為受到「一胎化」政策的影響，與經濟發展帶來的壓力。使得民眾從過去的非自願性不生育，轉變成自願性不生育。因此「全面二孩」的開放，不只是為了解決勞力問題，還有透過寬鬆的生育政策來刺激生育率的目的。其次，習近平上台後，原本掌控生育政策的計生委被合併進衛生部門。隨後，計劃生育的政策內容加速改動，並在2015年年底宣布取消「一胎化」，迎向「全面二孩」。最後透過本研究可以發現，在「一胎化」到「二胎化」的轉變過程中，政府的影響力還是推動政策方向的主要推手，而學界在其中多半扮演中間人與背書角色，民間多只能被動接受，或消極反應。

關鍵字

一胎化 ； 全面二胎 ； 計畫生育 ； 人口政策

並列摘要

The announcement of the “2 child policy” at the end of 2015 by the People's Republic of China Government signaled the end of the three-decades-long “one child policy”. While the implementation of the one child policy may have seen success in alleviating food shortage and population boom issues for the past three decades, it has also given rise to new problems, such as: workforce shortage, rising dependency ratio, unbalanced population structure, of which the “2 child policy” is seen as a possible resolution. This paper seeks to understand the causal factors, with the focal point being the process in which the “one child policy” transitions into the “two child policy”. The paper adopts the literature research methodology and performs a three step analysis: first, the paper sets forth the process of the population control policy reform. The paper then dissects the trilateral interaction between three actors, namely the government, the academia and the public. The paper then observes the influences which the three actors exerts on the policy reform in terms of their policy attitudes.
The findings of the paper are as follows: firstly, the government and the academia came to the realization that the causal effects of the one child policy and the economic development since the “open door policy” has resulted in the transition from “non-voluntary infertility” to “voluntary fertility”. The introduction of the two child policy is therefore not only aimed at resolving workforce shortages, but the stimulation of fertility rate by loosening restrictions as well. Secondly, with Xi Jinping assuming office, the Family Planning Committee which oversees china’s birth planning was combined with the national health department. Birth planning reform was propelled thereafter, resulting in the termination of the one child policy and the commencement of the two child policy. Lastly, the content as well as the speed of the strategic shift and policy reform were determined by the Chinese government, not by the public, nor by the interaction between the government, the public and the academia.

並列關鍵字

One Child Policy ； Two Child Policy ； Family Planning ； Population Policy

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