台灣的兩岸和平談判戰略之研究（1987-2016）──以巧實力戰略觀點分析

美中台關係是二戰結束以來國際關係領域內相當特殊的一個案例，其中涵蓋的美中、美台與台海兩岸三個雙邊關係組合的互動與連動，經常出現戰略上的競合與競逐。處在美中兩大強權之間的台灣，其生存之道殊為不易。兩岸之間自從1987年台灣開放人民赴大陸探親旅遊以來，因人員交流實際衍生的問題與各類服務需求，致有必要訂定各類業務規範以供遵行及管理。此所以兩岸之間必需要有協商與談判，惟因兩岸在主權互不承認、治權互不隸屬的情況下，就一個中國意涵的解讀，自雙方協商談判尹始就各持己見沒有共識，加以台灣內部因民主政治發展亦出現統獨爭議，故在兩岸關係互動上平添起伏跌宕情勢，使台灣在尋求對應中共的生存戰略上更形困難。本研究之目的，係從巧實力戰略之觀點檢視兩岸既有協商談判成果，進而期盼一窺台灣生存戰略之道。研究發現，在「親美、穩中」的概念架構下，台灣的戰略迴旋空間有限，更由於美中關係自川普總統上任以來已呈戰略競爭態勢，使美中台戰略三角關係甚至有崩解之虞。因此我政府宜採取積極的避險策略。台灣的避險策略，無論由任何政黨執政，都要能在兩岸政策的論述上顯示出和解取向的解套功能為妥。從本研究主張的巧實力運用下的談判特點---「求全、積極主動、尋求行動自由」之原則---觀之，宜持續尋求「以談判代替對抗」，力求穩住美中台三角關係，以待變局有利台灣之賡續生存與發展。

關鍵字

不戰而屈人之兵；行動戰略；巧實力

並列摘要

The US-China-Taiwan relationship is a very special case in the discipline of international relations since the end of World War II. It covers the interaction and linkage of the three bilateral relations of US-China, US-Taiwan and both sides of the Taiwan Strait, in which strategic cooperation or rivalries often arise. Therefore, Taiwan, as the vital interest for both the United States and China, has a very difficult way to survive between the two super powers. Since Taiwan opened up people's travel to Chinese mainland to visit relatives in 1987 between the two sides of the strait, it has been necessary to formulate various business regulations for compliance and management due to the actual problems arising from personnel exchanges and various service needs. Therefore, there must be consultation and negotiation between the two authorities of the strait. However, due to the said two authorities of the strait do not recognize each other's sovereignty and governing power, there is no consensus on the interpretation of the meaning of “one China” since the two sides started contact and negotiation. In the meantime, during the development of democratic politics in Taiwan, there have also been controversies about the agendas of reunifying with China or going independence for Taiwan, which has added ups and downs to the interaction of cross-strait relations, making it more difficult for Taiwan to seek a survival strategy in responding to the Chinese Communist challenges. iv The purpose of this study is to examine the results of cross-strait consultation and negotiation from the perspective of smart power strategy, and furthermore, to get a glimpse of Taiwan's survival strategy. The study found that under the conceptual framework of "pro-US and stabilizing-China", Taiwan’s strategic maneuver space is still limited. Moreover, because of the US-China relationship has been moving into strategic competition since President Donald Trump took office, the strategic triangle relationship among the US, China and Taiwan has even been worrisome for collapse. Therefore, the government of Taiwan should adopt an active hedging strategy. Taiwan’s hedging strategy, no matter what political party is in power, must be able to demonstrate a reconciliation-oriented cross-strait policy in encountering Chinese Communist pressure. With the characteristics of negotiation under the sophisticated use of smart power advocated in this research---it’s principle, namely, of "preserving peace, being proactive, and seeking freedom of action"---it is advisable to continue to seek "negotiation instead of confrontation", and strive to stabilize the US-China-Taiwan triangle relationship so as to waiting for changes that maybe conducive to Taiwan’s long-lasting survival and development.