影響購屋意願因素之研究

本文研究「影響購屋意願之因素」，在2019年間以Line社群媒體針對全台灣進行1200份問卷調查，再以Logistic 迴歸對936份有效問卷進行實證分析。結果顯示，「年齡」與購屋意願為負向顯著，呈現出當消費者年齡愈輕購屋意願卻愈高，表示年輕族群因結婚成家對房屋需求超過其他年齡層，購屋意願更高；而感到驚訝的是，「願意負擔之貸款負擔率」卻呈現正向顯著，表示願意負擔之貸款負擔率愈高愈有購屋意願，消費者寧願減少其消費支出而將大部分所得用於購屋而成為屋奴，代表消費者非常期待能擁有自己所有之房屋，「有土斯有財；住者有其屋」的觀念根深蒂固。另外，發現很有趣現象，「消費者能接受之房價所得比」，與購屋意願呈現負向顯著，顯示消費者能接受之房價所得比愈高時購屋意願愈低；反之，愈高，可解釋為消費者還是希望能夠在所得平穩情況下，房價能夠回跌，房價所得比降低，儘快能完成購屋之夢；而消費者之「家庭年所得」愈高，與購屋意願呈現正向顯著，代表家庭年所得愈高其購屋支付能力愈強，購屋意願就愈高；「預期未來2~3年房價是否上漲」，與購屋意願呈現正向顯著，表示對房價之心理預期會影響其購屋意圖進而影響購屋決策，在房價仍處高檔之際，政府房市政策應避免讓消費者對房價有增值的心理預期。在政策方面，「政府是否提供首購優惠貸款利率」正如預期與購屋意願呈現正向顯著，也凸顯政府對首購優惠貸款利息補貼政策，很明顯能夠影響消費者購屋決策而提高購屋意願；在「是否期待承租社會住宅」方面，竟然與購屋意願呈現負向顯著關係，表示會期待承租社會住宅者購屋意願較低，政府只要提供足夠社會住宅可以顯著減少消費者購屋需求而降低房價，也能解決租屋者居住問題，有一石二鳥之效。由以上研究顯示，政府對年輕族群租屋或購屋之居住問題應制定更良善住宅政策，如首購優惠貸款利率政策及足夠的社會住宅政策，冀能達到居住正義理想與目標。

關鍵字

購屋意願； Logistic 迴歸；貸款負擔率；房價所得比；社會住宅；居住正義

並列摘要

This study intends to explore factors affecting the willingness of buying houses for residents in Taiwan. 1200 questionnaires were given to respondents through the “Line” social media in 2019. Logistic regression was employed for the significant factors in the 936 valid questionnaires. Results of this study show that “age” negatively affects the willingness of buying houses, which means the younger the respondent, the higher the willingness of buying houses. This indicates that young people’s demand for buying houses due to household formation is greater than other age groups. Surprisingly, the factor “willingness to pay for mortgage burden rate” has a significant and positive effect, implying that the higher the willingness to pay for mortgage burden rate, the higher the willingness of buying houses. Respondents are willing to spend most of their income on the payments of mortgages and become slaves of their homes. This result show that the concept of home ownership is deeply rooted in respondents’ minds. An intriguing result is that “the acceptable house-price-to-income ratio of consumer” has negative effect on the willingness of buying houses. It could be interpreted that respondents wish the house prices to fall and pay a low “house-price-to-income ratio” for home purchasing. Another factor “the consumer’s annual household income” has positive effect on the willingness of buying houses. In other words, the higher their annual household income, the higher their ability to pay and the higher their willingness of buying houses. Moreover, “the expectation for house prices to rise in the next 2 to 3 years” has positive effect as well. This result means that respondents’ expectation for the trend of house prices would affect their buying decision. As for government policy, “government’s provision of the interest rate subsidy for mortgages (for the first-time home buyers)” has a positive effect on the willingness of buying houses. This result shows that the subsidy provision for the first-time home buyer has significant impact on respondents’ house buying decision. Another policy-related factor is “whether if the respondent expects to rent the social housing”. The result is significantly and negatively related to the willingness of buying houses. It indicates that the ones who expect to rent the social housing have lower willingness of buying houses. As long as the government provides enough social housing, it can solve the housing problem for renters and greatly reduce the demand for home buying. Based on the results of this study, government should formulate a set of more friendly housing policies for young people and renters, e.g, the provision of loan interest rate subsidy for first-time home buyers and sufficient supply of social housing, in order to achieve the goal of “residence justice”