避險策略下的波蘭外交與安全政策（2015–2019）

國際政治的變化多元且複雜，身為歐俄地緣斷層帶中、小型國家的波蘭，經歷了共產瓦解之後對於國家安全和國際認同的追求，雖然隨後正式地成為北約和歐盟的成員國，但由於2013年末的烏克蘭親歐示威運動和2014年的克里米亞危機與烏東衝突，再加上波蘭的總統以及國會選舉全面地政黨輪替，所以自法律與公正黨執政以來於安全與外交上所採行的戰略不僅受到鄰近各國的影響，更牽動了區域間強權的大博弈。　　本論文從回顧波蘭受到烏克蘭和克里米亞危機的影響入手，更進一步透過文獻分析其所扮演的角色和採取的立場。除此之外，本論文以波蘭外交部所公布的五年期外交政策計畫和逐年的外交政策報告為主，透過相互比較和分析，除了發現波蘭最注重軍事安全和經濟安全政策之外，也非常重視與周邊盟友間的區域合作政策，波蘭利用本身於北約和歐盟的優勢，充分地發揮了關鍵的區域議題主導能力和區域整合的影響力。　　波蘭置身於應對安全威脅與利益權衡的歐俄地緣斷層帶中，在制定外交戰略時往往會選擇較多元且彈性的避險策略，並在不同情況下靈活地調整其策略的運用。本論文為了瞭解波蘭於外交和安全上所採取的策略，所以從避險策略的觀點，就軍事安全、能源安全和區域合作的角度切入，發現其於上述避險策略的選擇除了注重波蘭的國家利益之外，也相當重視盟友間的共同利益。是故，波蘭深知應於威脅與利益交錯的複雜國際情勢中，採取富有彈性和靈活的避險策略，以維護其自身的利益與安全。

關鍵字

波蘭；避險策略；軍事安全；能源安全；區域合作

並列摘要

International relations have become diversified in recent years. As a small and medium state( SMSs) in the EU-Russian geo-fault zone, Poland had gone through the pursuit of national security and international recognition after the collapse of communism. Then, it officially got a membership in NATO and the European Union. However, the outbreaks of pro-European demonstrations, Euromaidan, in late 2013 and the Crimean crisis in 2014 were challenging tasks for the Polish government. In addition, the Prawo i Sprawiedliwość (PiS) party won the presidential and parliamentary elections and got political party alternation. Since the new party told power, the security and diplomatic strategies it adopted were not only affected by neighboring countries but also affected by the big game of interregional power. 　　This thesis starts with a review of the effects of the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea and further analyzes its role and position through literature. Besides, the thesis is based on the five-year foreign policy plans and foreign policy reports by years published by the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Other than attaching importance to national and economic security, it also attaches great importance to regional cooperation policies with neighboring countries. Poland, taking advantage of being memberships in NATO and the European Union, has given full play to its leadership of critical regional issues and the impact of regional integration. 　　Poland is in the European-Russian fault line constituting a crucial area of complex security threats and national interests. To formulate a diplomatic strategy, it often adopts a more diversified and flexible hedging strategy to adjust its application in different situations. In order to further understand Poland's diplomatic and security strategies, the thesis applies the hedging strategies to aspects of military security, energy security, and regional cooperation. It finds that apart from the national interest, Poland also coordinates well with allies' common interests. In summary, Poland is well aware that being in a complex international situation where threats and interests are intertwined, it is necessary to adopt hedging strategies to safeguard its interests and security.