俄羅斯對中政策轉變研究（2012-2019）

2012年至2019年間，俄羅斯與中國透過簽署戰略夥伴協議提升雙邊關係。但是關於俄羅斯主動提升對中關係之原因與過程尚待釐清。儘管相關文獻豐富，但多數分析集中於國際體系層次的因素，例如北約東擴或國際能源市場。另一方面，國內因素之研究則缺乏整合性觀點。也因此目前為止缺乏對俄羅斯國內行為者的影響力與對中決策的通盤性研究。本研究分析了從2012年至2019年間俄羅斯外交決策者對國際體系與國內體系的認知，並透過新古典現實主義的研究框架與文獻分析法，並得到以普欽為核心的派系權力網絡是影響俄羅斯對中政策的重要變數。研究顯示，2012年至2019年間兩次的俄中關係提升有著不同的原因。在2012年，俄羅斯國內行為者在決策過程中仍具有一定的獨立自主性，依靠其專業在以普欽為中心的決策網絡下制定政策並對強化俄中關係。但在2019年，俄中關係的強化則是被克里米亞半島衝突和中美關係緊張等突發事件所推動，多數行為者被迫加強與中國的關係以維持其經濟利益和政治地位。同時，普欽的中央集權和俄羅斯新型的派系政治結構降低了行為者在決策過程中的獨立性和影響力。基於上述原因，這推動了俄中關係的加強與新時代全面戰略夥伴關係的建立。

關鍵字

俄中關係；新古典現實主義；權力網絡關係；戰略夥伴關係

並列摘要

A series of ratifying strategic partner agreements from 2012 to 2019 have enhanced the bilateral relationship between Russia and China. However, it is unclear why Russia is willing to strengthen its ties with China. Despite the abundant literature, most of the studies focus on the factors at the level of the international system, such as the expansion of NATO or the international market of energy. On the other hand, the studies on domestic factors lack of integrated point of view. Thus, there is no overall research on the influence of domestic actors and its correlation to Russia’s China policy so far. The paper analyses how the decision-makers of Russia’s foreign policy precept the international and domestic systems from 2012 to 2019. Through the theories of neo-classical realism and the approaches of literature analysis, the paper suggests that the power network of fractional politics centered on Putin is the critical variable in Russia’s foreign policy with China. The paper indicates that there are two different reasons for the enhancement of the Sino-Russian relationship from 2012 to 2019. In 2012, the domestic actors in Russia still had some independence in the decision making process, relying on their personal professions to make the policy and intensified the Sino-Russian relationship under the Putin-Centered decision making network. In 2019, however, the agenda was driven by emergencies such as the conflicts in the Crimean Peninsula and the soaring Sino-American confrontations. Most actors are forced to strengthen their relationship with China to maintain their economic interests and political positions. At the same time, Putin’s centralization of power and the new formation of the power network in the Russian fractional political structure lower the actors’ independence and influence in the decision making process. For the above reasons, it enhances the Sino-Russian relationship and the founding of the “new era of comprehensive strategic partnership”.