中美貿易戰對台灣與巴西貿易關係的影響

在當前中美貿易戰中，許多國家都遭受到波及。除了中美兩國直接受到衝擊，其他國家間接地也受到了不少影響。然而有些國家得到的影響比較正面；自家貿易因而得到改善，本論文即在探討這兩大問題。首先，中美貿易是否會影響巴西與台灣的貿易關係，為了找出答案，筆者分析了 2007 年到 2018 年間的貿易值及交易產品間之關係。再者，本論文分析美國總統川普對中國發動的經濟制裁策略是否有效，因為在某種程度上川普的策略影響了中國的行為，但中國並沒有全然被牽著鼻子走。結論是中美貿易戰的確影響了巴西與台灣間的貿易關係，但此結果並非中國有意造成。貿易戰使巴西到中國的出口量快速增加，卻使巴西到台灣的出口量大大減少，然而這兩件事之間似乎沒有人為操作，僅是因果關係的影響，但這個議題還有待後人更深入的研究。

關鍵字

中美貿易戰中；美國；中國；巴西；臺灣

並列摘要

In the current Sino-US trade war many have been the consequences of this war, which didn’t only affect the two main nations but even if indirectly it has caused a spill over effect on many other nations. However, some might have had a more positive consequence than others in which it improved their trade and this research focused on two main puzzles to be explored. First, whether the Sino-US trade would affect Brazil-Taiwan trade relation and to obtain such information, trade value and traded products were analysed over the period of 2007-2018. Second, to find out if Donald Trump’s strategy to threat China by imposing the economic sanction on China was successful, which happened to be to certain extent as it influenced China’s behaviour but didn’t cause China to accept Trump’s imposition. As a conclusion, the Sino-US trade war had an impact on Brazil-Taiwan trade relationship but it wasn’t intentionally caused by China, but it happened to Brazil’s exportation to China to rapidly increase and Brazil’s exportation to Taiwan suffering a great decrease but there seems not to be any direct purpose for it to happen but just a cause-effect relation which should be explored more deeply in future research.