中國大陸在南海設立防空識別區可能性之探討

摘要中國大陸在南海設立防空識別區可能性之探討，這個題目成立背景的時機是中國大陸當時在東海成立防空識別區時引發諸多國際上的波濤及迴盪，因而構思如果在南海成立防空識別區將會引發何種激盪?而南海周邊的國際局勢較東海更為複雜詭譎，嚴格來說就是中美兩強在南海較量，爭奪，加上周邊小國如越南、菲律賓、印尼、馬來西亞，更是積極參與寄望獲得最大國家利益，更別說域外國家如日本、印度、澳洲、英國、法國及俄羅斯都來參一腳，使得原本就十分複雜的南海局勢更是被國際關係學者稱為南海火藥庫，只差引信一點燃就爆炸，因此本文藉著討論中國大陸在南海設立防空識別區可性之探討這個題目，加以重點式的發揮，再結合本人在軍中擔任飛行員、雷達攔截管制官、以及中科院天弓防空飛彈研發戰術顧問以及二十二年國際民航飛行資歷及背景，再結合兩年來在國立政治大學外交系戰略專班所受到各個國際關係、國際公法、戰略研究、南海研究、等各個馳名國際大師、學者專家的諄諄教誨，耐心細心的指導，然後歸納整理得到結論，中國大陸在南海到底要不要設立防空識別區?結論是，看情況而定；如果要成立，必須軟硬體設施都已佈署完善妥當，只待時機宣布成立而已，然而問題在於什麼時機最恰當?結論是：一、完全準備好了，島上軟硬體都已經建設完畢，防空武力及浮動核能發電站布置妥當，但此時還不急著宣布成立，因為在鄰國交界處建立警戒及監視系統總是不友善的行為，所以要敦親睦鄰，以和為貴，事緩則圓。二、等到一但國際局勢對中國狀況不利，周邊有事，則立刻宣布成立中國大陸在南海設立防空識別區，並且同時宣布開始建設黃岩島以及五方礁以及周邊重要略據點島嶼，充分發揮中國『後發制人』的傳統戰法及優勢，中國大陸這種『退一步，進兩步』的戰略思想已經運用在許多方面，而且成效斐然，不論是對付國內抗拒拆遷的釘子戶，還是南海的填海造島，或是對付疆獨，藏獨等異議分離分子，或是國際關係的運用，一帶一路的談判與妥協均可見其鑿斧。

關鍵字

防空識別區；後發制人；浮動核能發電站；填海造島

並列摘要

Abstract “A Study on The Possibilities of China's establishing ADIZ in The South China Sea＂；ADIZ, East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone of the People's Republic of China（East China Sea ADIZ），established in 2013,11,23 .Cause a lots of conflict and dissension between the countries around East China Sea,International situation of South China Sea are more complicated than East China Sea, United States and China to contest around South China Sea plus Vietnam and the Philippines、Japan、France、Australia、India、UK, is really chaos,you may call its a gunpoeder jue of South China Sea.Now I am study the subject of 『A Study on The Possibilities of China＇s establishing ADIZ in The South China Sea』to display to many direction ,especially the Best timing establish ADIZ.When and How and Why.Before I am retired from international major airline as a pilot for 22 years,My back ground are military pilot、radar controller、and ground to air missile Strategic Consultance . Study at NCCU College of International Affairs are quite happy and deserve.The great master guidance us a bright way.teaching very carefully and inspiration. I wish conclusion of this subject are useful for the world .Does China establish ADIZ in South China Sea? Answer is:As Require ,depend on outside change.If yes,When?,first of all ,all settle down of hardware and software plus floating Nuclear power plant was completed.Second .declare the South China Sea ADIZ was established when International Affairs and relations not conducive to China.Simutaneously start construction of Scarborough Reef and Jackson Atoll.the ideology of China was『backward one step then forward two steps』is a kind of『was hited, then double fight back』policy are quite commonly Seen.