人口老化對房價影響之研究-以臺北市與臺中市為例

近年來老年化問題為主要的人口結構研究議題，而臺北市與臺中市的人口結構屬於聯合國衛生組織定義的「高齡化社會」逐漸轉變為「高齡社會」。然而，依據過去文獻表示，人口結構的變化會對於房地產市場帶來結構性的變化，並且影響程度高於景氣波動和經濟成長所產生之衝擊。本研究以臺北市與臺中市作為研究對象，以共整合檢定和向量誤差修正模型為研究方法；立基於「都市化經濟」的理論基礎，嘗試了解臺北市與臺中市人口結構高齡化趨勢對其房價的影響，同時考量：勞保投保人數、公共設施面積占比、營業人家數、交通運輸、利率、物價指數、股價指數以及貨幣供給M2成長率等變數影響。研究結果發現，無論是臺北市或臺中市，當老年人口占比愈高，則會減弱該地區的房價指數。其他變數方面，勞保投保人數、營業人家數、物價指數、股價指數、以及貨幣供給M2成長率都對於臺北市與臺中市的房價指數帶來正面影響；利率則對於這兩地區的房價指數帶來負面影響；而公共設施用地面積占比愈高，以及交通運輸愈便利，只會對於臺北市房價指數帶來正面的影響效果。

關鍵字

人口結構；高齡社會；房價指數；共整合分析；時間序列

並列摘要

In recent years, the issue of aging has been the main research topic of popu-lation structure, and the population structure of Taipei and Taichung City has gradually turned into the "senior society" as defined by the United Nations Health Organization. However, according to past literature, changes in the population structure will bring structural changes to the real estate market, and the impact will be higher than that on the economic development. This study selects Taipei City and Taichung City as the research objects, and applies the co-integration test and vector error correction model as the research method. Based on the theoretical basis of the "urban economics", this study intends to explore the impact of the aging trend of the population structure on the house prices in Taipei City and Taichung City. Other independent variables includes labor participation rate, area of public facilities, price level, number of labor insurance insurers, number of business groups, interest rates, money supply, transportation system, and stock prices, etc. Empirical results from this study indicate that, for both Taipei and Taichung City, the higher the proportion of the elderly population, the lower the housing price index in the region. As for other variables, the number of labor in-surance insurers, the number of business households, the price level, the stock price index, and the growth rate of the money supply all have positive impacts on the housing price index in Taipei and Taichung. As expected, interest rates have negative impacts on the housing price index in these two cities. This study also finds that the proportion of public facilities and the convenient transportation sys-tem have a positive impact on the Taipei housing price index.