貨幣政策、人口因素和居民財富對房價影響實證研究

An Empirical Study on the Influence of Monetary Policy, Population and Residents’ Wealth on House Prices

鄭浩(Hao Zheng)

指導教授 ： 邱顯比

國立臺灣大學/管理學院/財務金融學研究所/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU202101111

摘要

本文利用理論和實證相結合的方法探討人口因素、貨幣政策、經濟發展等因素對全國及區域房地產價格的影響，並針對現存的問題，提出一些合理的建議。本文採用2010年第3季度至2020年第二季度的全國及一線城市季度數據進行計量模型回歸分析，主要研究發現如下：（1）中國大陸存在貨幣超發，且廣義貨幣供應量的快速增長促進了全國房價的上漲。超發的貨幣需要尋找資產，而房市在中國大陸的優質性吸引了大量資金流入，從而推動了房價的上漲。（2）在城鎮化的進程以及人口向大城市集聚的背景下，一線城市的房價快速上漲在很大程度上能被人口流入引發的住房需求增長所解釋。一線城市的住房土地供給有限而住房需求不斷上升，供需不平衡推升房地產價格上漲。（3）經濟的發展增加了居民的財富，居民的購買力增強也推動了全國房價的上漲。但一線城市的房價不能被一線城市的經濟發展水平很好地解釋，說明了一線城市的房價在一定程度上脫離了一線城市經濟發展的基本面，更多地受到一線城市人口和貨幣政策的影響。
基於以上結論，政府決策者在實行房價調控政策時，更多的應關注貨幣資金流入房市的問題以及解決區域房地產市場供需不匹配的問題。科學地調控房地產市場促進房市的健康穩定發展，並發揮房市在宏觀經濟中的重要作用。

關鍵字

房地產價格 ； 貨幣政策 ； 人口 ； 經濟發展

並列摘要

This article combines theoretical and empirical methods to explore the impact of population, monetary policy, economic development and other factors on regional real estate prices, and puts forward some reasonable suggestions for existing problems. This paper uses quarterly data of first-tier cities, from the third quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2020, to conduct econometric regression analysis. The main findings are as followed: (1) There is over-issuance of currency in mainland China, and the rapid growth of M2 has promoted the rise in housing prices nationwide. Over-issued currencies lead to booming investments, and the promising housing market in mainland China has attracted a large number of capital pouring, which has subsequently resulted in rising housing prices. (2) In the context of urbanization where the population gradually concentrated in big cities, the rapid increase in housing prices in first-tier cities can be explained to a large extent by the increase in housing demand triggered by population inflows. Land resources in these cities are limited while housing demand continues to rise. Such imbalance between supply and demand pushes up real estate prices. (3) Economic development has improved residents’ revenue, and the increasing purchasing power of residents has also promoted the rise of national housing prices. However, the housing prices in first-tier cities cannot be explained by the level of economic development, indicating that first-tier cities’ housing prices are separated from the fundamentals of the economic development of the cities.
Based on the above conclusions, when governments design policies to control housing, they should pay more attention to the monetary capital pouring into the housing market and to the imbalance between supply and demand in the regional real estate market. Scientifically regulate and control the real estate market to promote the healthy and stable development of the housing market, and give full play to the significant role of the real estate market in the macro economy.

並列關鍵字

real estate prices ； monetary policy ； population ； economic development

參考文獻

Akinci O，Olmstead-Rumsey J.,2018, How effective are macroprudential policies? An empirical investigation [J].Journal of Financial Intermediation(33):33-57.

Brown S J，Liu C H.,2011,A global perspective on real estate cycles [M].Amsterdam: Kluwer Academic Publishers: 63-89.

Davis E P，Zhu H.,2011, Bank lending and commercial property cycles: Some cross-country evidence [J].Journal of International Money Finance 30(1):1-21.

Fama and Schwert, 1977, “Asset Returns and Inflation”, Journal of Financial Economics, 5, 115-146.

Gauthier C，Lehar A，Souissi M.,2012, Macroprudential capital requirements and systemic risk [J].Journal of Financial Intermediation 21(4):594-618.