莫迪政府的對中政策：轉移性外交政策之觀點

轉移性外交政策是一種在領導人面臨國內動亂或者低民調之時會採取之策略。較為冒險或者攻擊性的外交政策方針可以創造「聚旗效應」，增強國內凝聚力並順勢讓領導者達成其政治目的。這樣的政策選擇常見於民主國家，通常發生在當權者需要贏得第二次大選或者鞏固自身領導地位、穩定支持率之時。本文旨在點出莫迪政府在對中政策上，採用了轉移性外交政策的戰略。這樣的政策選擇體現在三個重大事件上，分別為：洞朗衝突、加勒萬河谷衝突以及喀什米爾自治地位的廢除。為了瞭解政策制定之動機，本文會將政策產出的過程分為三個部分，並針對每一個部分進行獨立的分析。第一部分為「外部因素」，主要會探討三個影響莫迪對中政策的因素。第一為中印關係的歷史，再者為中國之大戰略以及對印政策，最後會將對中印關係有重大影響力的三個國家納入討論－巴基斯坦、俄羅斯以及美國。以上三個外部因素都或多或少影響著莫迪政府對中印關係的判斷。第二部分為「內部機制」，在此部分將會以層次分析的方式將政策形塑過程中的變因加以討論。在個人層次的部分，討論莫迪個人經驗以及戰略思維對其外交政策的影響。國家層次則討論政府部門－外交部、國防部以及貿易部；與國內行為者－國民大會黨、印度人民黨以及印度智庫等，分析這些行為者如何影響印度對中政策。最後，我則依據上面的討論框架，分析三個重大事件中的轉移性外交政策因子。本文認為莫迪所採取的轉移性外交政策有別於一般的對於此類政策的認識。雖然莫迪試圖運用轉移性外交政策來凝聚民心，但其對中國的經濟依賴讓莫迪政府在政策的施行上有所侷限。

關鍵字

莫迪；轉移性外交政策；中印關係；邊界衝突

並列摘要

Diversionary foreign policy is a strategy which state leaders would adopt while they face domestic turmoil or low popularity. An aggressive or adventurous foreign policy would generate a rally-around-the-flag effect, enhance national cohesion so that they would achieve their own political goal. This approach of foreign policy has been widely seen in democracies, as a tactic to win the re-election or to secure their support base. This article argues that the Modi administration applies such strategy to its China policy, especially demonstrated from three events taken place during his term, namely, Doklam dispute, Galwan Valley dispute and the revocation of Kashmir’s autonomous status. In order to understand the motivation behind the policy, this article will divide the whole policy-making process into two sections, and analyze them respectively. The first section is the external factors, which consist of historical factors, China’s foreign policy and foreign stakeholders. The level analysis will be adopted while examining the next section: the internal mechanism. At an individual level, I touch upon the influence of Modi’s past experience and his foreign policy framework. As for the domestic level, both governmental agencies and domestic agents are discussed. I argue that although Modi attempted to adopt diversionary policies to win over support from Indian citizens, India’s economic dependence on China has restricted the approaches he can actually implement.