探討國際航運投資之關鍵決策因子-結合MCDM之應用

Exploring the Key Decision Factor of International Shipping Investment by Using MCDM Method

蔡翔宇(Tsai Hsiang-Yu)

指導教授 ： 林靖 ； 翁永和

國立政治大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202101367

摘要

本文以金融機構觀點對國際航運投資之關鍵決策因子進行關研究，並運用混合MCDM分析法進行探討。首先根據過去文獻及專家問卷，得出20項研究準則，並將這些準則分三個步驟探討。第一，運用模糊決策試驗與實驗評估法(Fuzzy Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory, Fuzzy DEMATEL)技術，對因素間之相互影響關係進行分析，藉此建構出可視化的影響網路關係圖(Influential Network Relation Map, INRM)並找出因果路徑；第二，運用Fuzzy DANP Type II簡化問卷調查中各準則的成對比較，並獲得各準則的權重值；最後，透過Fuzzy modified VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje)技術，經由計算各方案評估值與渴望水準(aspiration level)之接近程度來獲得缺口值(gap)，並依此對公司進行缺口改善，使之邁向達到可望水準。配合影響網路關係圖，可以對公司提出根源改善之建議，令其對問題的源頭進行檢視與改良，或可更進一步改善其績效表現。研究結果顯示專家認為以金融機構觀點對國際航運進行投資時首先應優先考量的因素為稅後淨利率。除此之外，藉由缺口值的表現與INRM得以找出準則間影響路徑的源頭，以進行根源之系統改善。經由本研究之實證結果發現，當國際航運公司對內部人持股比例進行改善，可能造成系統性的全面改進，此可幫助航運公司在其績效表現上更進一步邁向達成最佳化。

關鍵字

MCDM ； 混合式MADM ； DEMATEL ； ANP ； VIKOR ； 修正式VIKOR ； 國際航運投資 ； 績效評估 ； 基本面分析

並列摘要

The dissertaion analyizes the key factors for international shipping investment from the perspective of financial institution with hybrid MCDM method. Based on the literature review and the questionnaire, the dissertaion builds 20 criterition as research indicators, then discusses these indicators by three steps.
The dissertation firstly applies the Fuzzy DEMATEL method to analyze the interactions between the factors to construct the visualized Influential Network Relation Map (INRM) and find the causal path. Second, the paired comparisons of criterition in the questionnaire are simplified via the Fuzzy DANP Type II method in order to obtain the weight rate of indivual criterition. Lastly, the dissertation calculates the gap between the evaluation value of each plan and the aspiration level through the Fuzzy modified VIKOR technique, then optimize companies accordingly.
The result indicates that experts assert that from the perspective of financial institution, the after-tax interest rate should be the first factor to consider in international shipping investment. Additionally, through the performance of the gap and the INRM, the source of the influence path can be found to systematically solve the root cause.
In the empirical results, it is found that when an international shipping company makes changes on the percentage of insider ownership, it may lead to a systematic and comprehensive improvement, and hence contribute to the shipping company for a better performance and reach an optimal level.

並列關鍵字

MCDM ； Hybrid MADM ； DEMATEL ； ANP ； VIKOR ； modified VIKOR ； Investment of International Shipping ； performance evaluation ； Fundamental Analysis

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