以金融機構觀點分析國際航運投資之研究-運用混合MADM分析法

Investment of International Shipping for Financial Institution Perspectives by Using Hybrid MADM Method

陳稟恆(Chen Bing-Heng)

指導教授 ： 林靖 ； 陳心蘋

國立政治大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2020年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202001504

摘要

本文針對金融機構觀點對國際航運投資進行了相關研究，並運用混合MADM 分析法進行探討。根據過去相關文獻，再由 15 位專家對初擬之指標進行重要度評估後，本文最終採用了 18 個準則作為研究指標，並將這些指標分成四個維度來探討。
由 DANP-mV 的混合 MADM 模型對國際航運投資進行分析中，首先本文運用應用決策實驗室分析法(DEMATEL)技術，對因素間之相互影響關係進行分析，並找出影響路徑的源頭。此外，得建構出可視化的影響網絡關係圖(INRM)；再者，透過 DANP Type II 技術之運用，將問卷調查中各準則的成對比較步驟簡單化；最後，透過修正式 VIKOR 技術，經由比較各方案的評估值和渴望水準(Aspiration Level)的相對程度來對方案進行優先順序。此外，配合缺口值(Gap)的計算，可以對公司提出根源改善之建議，令其對問題的源頭進
行檢視與改良，或可更進一步改善其績效表現。
本文研究結果表示專家認為以金融機構觀點對國際航運進行投資時首先應優先考量的因素為負債權益比。除此之外，藉由缺口值的表現與 INRM 得以找出準則間影響路徑的源頭，以進行根源改善。經由本研究之實證結果發現，當國際航運公司對內部人持股比例進行改善，可能造成系統性的全面改進，或可幫助航運公司在其績效表現上更進一步的優化。

關鍵字

MCDM ； 混合 MADM ； DEMATEL ； ANP ； VIKOR ； 修正式 VIKOR ； 國際航運投資 ； 績效評估 ； 基本面分析

並列摘要

This article research on international shipping investment.We use the hybrid MADM analysis method to discuss it. According to the literature, this study finally adopted 18 criteria as research indicators, and divided these indicators into the four dimensions.
In the DANP-mV model, firstly, we use the DEMATEL to analyze the relationship between the factors and find the source of the influence path. In addition, we can construct the Influential Network Relation Map (INRM). Secondly, through the DANP Type II, the questionnaire is simplified. Finally, through the modified VIKOR technology, we can prioritize the alternatives. In addition, with the calculation of the gap, we can propose improvements to the company, so that it can improve its performance.
The results indicate that experts believe that the first priority factor to consider when investing in international shipping is the debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio. In addition, through the performance of the gap value and the INRM, the source of the influence path can be found to improve the root cause.
The empirical results of this study found that when an international shipping company improves the proportion of insiders' shareholding, it may result in a systematic and comprehensive improvement, or it may help the shipping company to further optimize its performance.

並列關鍵字

MCDM ； Hybrid MADM ； DEMATEL ； ANP ； VIKOR ； modified VIKOR ； Investment of International Shipping ； Performance Evaluation ； Fundamental Analysis

參考文獻

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