台灣西部海域離岸風力發電選址自然災害風險評估之研究

The study of natural disaster risk assessment for offshore wind power generation site in the western coasts of Taiwan

劉維傑(Liou Wei-Jie)

指導教授 ： 甯方璽

國立政治大學/社會科學學院/地政學系/碩士(2021年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202101432

摘要

隨著經濟不斷發展，近幾年來受到全球暖化的影響日益加劇，對此環保意識逐漸抬頭，而聯合國永續發展目標亦有多項指標對於環境保護有所規範。考量到國外再生能源發展之技術成熟性及台灣本島地狹人稠等諸多特性，離岸風力發電為永續能源之最佳選擇。
政府政策亦朝前揭目標邁進，全力推動離岸風力發電。目前台灣離岸風場之選址主要以風能密度作為考量，對於該場址自然災害所造成的風險較無著墨。為此，本研究將以空間資訊之技術，結合美國航空暨太空總署現代研究應用回顧分析之風力資料、中央氣象局-臺灣海域各地浪高週期波向觀測月統計資料、台灣地震危害度分析之475年回歸期的機率式地震危害度分析資料、台灣電力公司落雷監測歷史資料，首先對於台灣周圍地區之自然災害，利用專家問卷，以模糊層級分析法解算出離岸風力發電機各部件所受到自然災害之影響程度，綜整上述數據，最後建立起台灣西部海域離岸風力發電自然災害選址風險評估模型，以供後續選址規劃之使用。
本研究之成果，各零件機組受自然災害影響比重，發電機、轉子葉片、轉子機頭皆受到風力影響的程度最高；塔受到地震的影響程度最高；變壓器受到雷擊的影響程度最高。而就風機整體而言，風力被評定為最具威脅之自然災害，其次為雷擊、海浪、地震。
本研究成果針對各項自然災害空間分布進一步解釋，並對風機各零件機組所受自然災害影響程度進行分析，最後得出自然災害選址風險評估模型，並以標準化的指標(1~10)區分風機於該地區的自然災害風險程度，藉由該指標，本研究得以找出最適建立離岸風機之場址。

關鍵字

離岸風力發電 ； 空間資訊 ； 風險評估 ； 模糊層級分析法

並列摘要

With the long-lasting development of the economy, the impact of global warming has been increasing in recent years. Therefore, the environmental protection awareness has gradually aroused. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) also release several criterions to promote environmental protection. Consider Taiwan’s small land area and high population density, offshore wind power is the wise choice for sustainable energy in Taiwan.
At present, the site selection of Taiwan's offshore wind farm is mainly based on wind energy density but not take the risks caused by natural disasters into account. Therefore, this research will utilize space information technology and natural disaster big data, through expert questionnaires based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP), obtain the weight of single natural disasters impact the components of offshore wind turbine, and finally established the natural disaster risk assessment model for offshore wind turbine in the western coast of Taiwan.
Based on the results of FAHP, the weight of single component impacted by natural disasters, wind is the most threatening disaster to generators, rotor blades, and rotor hub. Earthquakes is the most threatening disaster to towers. Thunder is the most threatening disaster to transformers. For wind turbines, wind is the most threatening natural disaster, followed by thunder, sea waves, and earthquakes.
This research briefly explains the spatial distribution of various natural disasters and analyze the weight of natural disasters affected by the component of wind turbine. The natural disaster risk assessment model for offshore wind farm is based on standardized indicators (1~10) to distinguish the risk index of each wind turbine. With this index, this model can find the most suitable site for offshore wind turbines.

並列關鍵字

Offshore wind turbine ； Spatial information ； Risk assessment ； Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

參考文獻

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