評估鄰里交通改善計畫對道路交通安全的影響

Effects of the Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program on Traffic Safety

黃耀正(Frank Yao Huang)

指導教授 ： 黃柏鈞

國立政治大學/社會科學學院/經濟學系/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202200261

摘要

為了減少道路交通事故或是其造成的損傷，道路交通號誌常被用來作為提醒用路人多加注意道路狀況。本文分析於台北市實施的「鄰里交通改善計畫」對道路交通安全的影響，該計畫於街道巷弄大量的規畫標線型人行道、調整禁停紅黃線、畫設限速停慢標字等。本文以卜瓦松差異中的差異法估計政策效果，該模型允許不同道路或不同年間車禍數與車禍受傷人數的異質性。實證結果發現政策雖無明顯降低白天的車禍數卻顯著的降低白天的車禍受傷人數約6%，夜晚的車禍數及受傷人數些微的增加，但統計上並不顯著異於零。此結果表明「鄰里交通改善計畫」所設置的標線與標字用來提醒用路人路況的目的並沒有反映在減少車禍發生的機率，而是反映在降低車禍的嚴重程度。不僅如此，白天與晚上相異的結果顯示政策造成的效果是起因於白天光線充足，使駕駛人能夠清楚的辨認道路上的施作內容，進而提高用路人的注意力。反之，晚上的視線不佳造成政策施作的改善內容效果甚微，因此本文建議應於的街道巷弄間提供充足的光源讓用路人於晚上能明確的辨認道路上的標線與標字。

關鍵字

鄰里交通改善計畫 ； 巷弄安全 ； 卜瓦松迴歸 ； 差異中的差異法

並列摘要

To reduce the number of road traffic accidents (RTA) or injuries, traffic signs or road markings are usually used to remind drivers taking more attention on road conditions. This paper analyze the impact of Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program (NTEIP) in Taipei City on road traffic safety. Under this program, marked sidewalks, prohibited parking lines and speed limit slogans etc. are implemented on alleys. I apply the Poisson difference-in-differences that allows heterogeneity between roads and between years in RTAs and injuries. The estimation results suggest the number of RTAs during daytime decline insignificantly, injuries causing by RTAs significantly reduce by about 6%. Both RTAs and injuries increase negligibly at night. These results indicates that the purpose of NTEIP which alert drivers drive more carefully on alleys reflects on lowering RTAs’ severity but not reducing RTAs’ occurrence. Furthermore, the difference results between daytime and night show that the policy effect is resulting from sufficient sunlight, helping motorists clearly identify the traffic sign, and improve their concentration on road conditions afterwards. On the contrary, poor sight at night causing policy has such minimal effects. Therefore, this research suggest the program should provide enough light at night, helping drivers more clearly recognize the markings on alleys.

並列關鍵字

Neighborhood Traffic Environment Improvement Program ； Alleys’ safety ； Poisson regression ； Difference-in-differences

參考文獻

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