本文利用合成控制法 (synthetic control method),研究網路輿情負面聲量與高端疫苗 (MVC covid-19 vaccine) 施打量之間的因果關係 (causality)。以台灣衛生福利部疾病管制署 (CDC) 提供的疫苗施打期數為基準,在施打區間上做些許的調整,並搭配 OpView 社群口碑資料庫的聲量資料,探討2021年9月24日至10月2日的網路輿情負面聲量介入效果 (treatment effect),是否對日後的高端疫苗施打量有影響。研究結果顯示,2021年10月3日至10月5日的高端疫苗施打量下降98%,與模擬出來的對照組 (control group) 相比下多減少70%,而10月5日後的高端疫苗施打量也都低於模擬對照組的施打量。
This research studies the causality between the negative public opinion on the internet and the number of MVC covid-19 vaccinated by the synthetic control method (SCM). Based on the vaccine data provided by the Centers for the Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the Taiwan Ministry of Health and Welfare, some adjustments are made to the data period in the analysis. Together with the public opinion data of the OpView, this study explores the effect of negative online public opinion on the number of MVC vaccinated from September 24th, 2021 to October 2nd, 2021. The results show a 98% drop in MVC vaccinations between October 3rd and October 5th, 2021, and a 70% reduction compared to the simulated control group. The decrease in the MVC vaccinations has a continuous impact in the later periods.