東亞氣候俱樂部之建構與模擬：以E3ME模型為基礎

近幾年極端天氣與生物多樣性等的變化都在警示我們氣候變遷已轉化為氣候危機。增長的人為溫室氣體排放對於全球暖化的影響最大，特別是化石燃料燃燒與工業導致的二氧化碳排放。歐盟為應對氣候變遷作出積極的努力，除排放交易體系外，還將於2027年全面施行碳邊境調整機制，對各國產業可能產生一定衝擊，特別是東亞地區的韓國、日本、中國大陸、台灣，皆在2021年度歐盟前二十大貿易夥伴之列。因此本研究以此為背景，希望運用E3ME模型模擬東亞氣候俱樂部對於中國大陸、台灣、日本、韓國深度減碳的作用，同時考慮對總體經濟、產業的影響。若想達到巴黎協定使全球平均氣溫升幅控制在工業化前水準1.5℃和2℃內的目標，不得不面對經濟成長與碳排脫鉤的問題，兩者又與能源發電技術密切相關，故在東亞氣候俱樂部的減碳政策上本研究設計了碳稅和化石燃料裝置容量限制。並在稅收中立原則之下，考慮五種稅收的運用方式。為吸引發展中國家加入大幅減碳行列，還加入資金的國際移轉。借由情境的設計與對比，本研究發現氣候俱樂部單獨施加碳稅效果相對有限，而在此基礎上加入燃油、燃煤、燃氣裝置容量限制，成員國則可減排約一半，且都對GDP有正向影響，稅收循環加強了這種正向影響。成員國大部分的碳邊境調整的相關產業產值都有所增加，其中機械設備的產值增幅最明顯。國際移轉使中國更有誘因加入氣候俱樂部，中國2050年的二氧化碳排放量較不加入氣候俱樂部時大幅降低。故在兩種減碳政策、稅收循環與國際移轉之下的氣候俱樂部是有明顯減碳效果的。

關鍵字

氣候變遷；氣候俱樂部； E3ME模型；碳邊境稅；國際移轉

並列摘要

Extreme weather and loss of biodiversity in recent years are warning us that climate change is turning into a climate crisis. Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel and industry, have the greatest impact on global warming. The EU has made positive efforts to deal with climate change. In addition to the emission trading system, the EU will also implement the carbon border adjustment mechanism in 2027, which may have a huge impact on the industries of East Asia countries. Therefore, based on the CBAM, this study hopes to use the E3ME model to simulate the effect of the East Asia Climate Club on deep abatement in China, Taiwan, Japan and South Korea, and consider the impact on the economy and industry. Decoupling of economic growth and carbon emissions needs carbon pricing. Moreover, these two are closely related to the energy power generation technology. Thus, the climate club abatement policy in East Asia is to design a carbon tax and fossil fuels installed capacity limits. Under the principle of tax revenue neutrality, the study considers using tax revenue in five ways. Furthermore, international transfers are also needed to induce developing countries to join the climate club. Through the design and comparison of scenarios, the study finds that the effect of carbon tax imposed by climate club alone is relatively limited, while adding capacity limits of oil, coal and gas installations on this basis, the member countries can reduce emissions by about half. All of them have a positive impact on GDP, and the tax revenue recycling strengthens this positive impact. Most of the carbon border adjustment-related industries in member countries have increased their output, with the most significant increase in mechanical engineering. As an inducement for China to join the climate club, international transfers resulted in a significant reduction in China's carbon dioxide emissions in 2050. Therefore, the East Asia climate club has obvious abatement effect under two kinds of abatement policies, tax revenue recycling and international transfers.