台灣上市櫃公司交易量與價格動能交易策略之研究

Research on Trading Volume and Price Momentum Strategies in Taiwan Stock Market

林彧生(Lin Yu-Sheng)

指導教授 ： 林靖庭

國立政治大學/商學院/金融學系/碩士(2022年)

https://doi.org/10.6814/NCCU202200563

摘要

本研究針對Lee and Swaminathan (2000) 所提出「交易量可預測動能的規模與持續時間」進行驗證，探究交易量與價格動能交易策略在台灣上市櫃公司中的表現。本研究發現，在一年之內，過往具有較高報酬率的公司，其未來報酬率較高；而低交易量公司的報酬率皆高於高交易量公司。將投資期間拉長至五年，則可見到高交易量之股票，其動能逐漸消散，但並無觀察到動能反轉的現象。針對上述，本研究提出「買入低交易量的贏家、並賣出高交易量的輸家」的淨零投資交易策略，將能賺取中期每月1.27%至1.33%、或長期每年4.51%至16.47%的超額報酬。此外，本研究亦觀察股票動能於股市恐慌期間的表現，可發現在全球金融海嘯時期有顯著的動能反轉；然而在新冠肺炎疫情期間，台灣上市櫃公司的動能並未如金融危機期間有明顯的消散現象，推測是因為疫情僅為間接對金融體系造成衝擊，且在疫情爆發初期，台灣國內並未受到疫情嚴重影響，故股市於崩跌後快速反彈。

關鍵字

動能交易策略 ； 交易量 ； 週轉率 ； 流動性 ； 金融危機 ； 新冠肺炎

並列摘要

This study examines the performance of trading volume and price momentum strategies among Taiwan’s listed companies based on the idea that past trading volume predicts the magnitude and persistence of price momentum, which was first documented by Lee and Swaminathan (2000). The result shows that in intermediate-horizon, firms with higher past returns earn higher future returns; in the meantime, firms with lower turnover rate earns higher future returns than firms with higher turnover rate. If the holding period is lengthened to 5 years, it’s found the momentum premiums of high-liquidity firms dissipate gradually, while no significant momentum reversal was found. Based on the above, this study suggests a dollar-neutral portfolio that longs low volume winners and shorts high-volume losers, which generates excess return by 1.27% to 1.33% monthly in intermediate horizon, or 4.51% to 16.47% annually in long horizon. This paper also examined how momentum behaves during recent market declines, where we find momentum reversal during the financial crisis, while no significant momentum dissipation is observed during the panic state caused by COVID-19. A possible explanation is that the pandemic didn’t cause direct damage to the financial system, and Taiwan was not severely affected at the beginning of the global outbreak, so the stock market rebounded quickly following the crash.

並列關鍵字

Momentum strategy ； Trading volume ； Turnover rate ； Liquidity ； Financial crisis ； COVID-19

參考文獻

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