探討總體經建環境對台灣房價的影響

本研究以信義房價指數代表中古屋房價，國泰房地產指數代表新成屋價格，並從代表總體經濟層面的經濟成長率、失業率、M1B年增率、臺灣指數加權指數，代表房市需求層面的五大銀行新承做購屋貸款利率、可支配所得，代表房市供給層面的建築物建造執照、營造工程物價指數，透過階層迴歸法探討影響台灣房價波動的關鍵因素。研究結果顯示經濟成長率、失業率對信義房價指數及國泰房地產指數皆有顯著的負面影響，M1B年增率、台灣指數加權指數、可支配所得、營造工程物價指數對信義房價指數及國泰房地產指數皆有顯著的正面影響，建照件數僅對國泰房地產指數有顯著正向影響。

關鍵字

國泰房地產指數；信義房價指數；供給面與需求面；階層迴歸

並列摘要

In this study, the Xinyi house price index represents the price of pre-owned houses, and the Cathay real estate index represents the price of newly-built houses. Economic growth rate, unemployment rate, M1B annual growth rate, and Taiwan weighted stock index are adopted as macroeconomic variables. New loans & interest rates by 5 leading banks, Disposable Income are adopted as the demand-side variables of the housing market. Amounts of Building Construction Permit and Construction Cost Index (CCI) are adopted as the supply-side variables of the housing market. This study would explore the key factors affecting the fluctuation of housing prices in Taiwan through hierarchical regression. The research result shows that the GDP growth rate, unemployment rate has a statistically-significant negative impact on both the Xinyi house price index and the Cathay real estate index. M1B yearly growth rate, Taiwan weighted stock index, Disposable Income, and Construction Cost Index (CCI) have statistically-significant positive effects on both Xinyi house price index and Cathay real estate index; Amounts of Building Construction Permit has statistically-significant positive effects on Cathay real estate index only.