- 學位論文
臺灣蔬果批發市場價格預測模型
Wholesale Price Forecast Model of Vegetable and Fruit in Taiwan
摘要
本研究目的是希望建立一個可導入公開電子資料，並透過程式自動化預估臺灣各品項蔬果未來每日平均批發價格之模型。公開批發市場行情是終端民生消費零售市場之定價參考重要指標之一，預估各蔬果品項每日平均批發價格可提供零售市場與消費者對價格波動即早作出反應。 本研究首先透過文獻回顧的方式探討可能影響蔬菜、水果批發價格的自變數，並進一步根據公開電子資料狀況與批發市場實際運作情形作資料與變數調整後，分別建立「臺灣地區別(全臺、臺北市、新北市、桃園市、臺中市、高雄市)蔬菜、水果日批發價格預估複迴歸模型」與「全臺各品項全臺蔬菜、水果日批發交易量預估複迴歸模型」。 研究結果顯示，以前期批發價格與批發交易量作為自變數的「臺灣地區別蔬菜、水果日批發價格預估複迴歸模型」具一定解釋能力，所有品項於所有地區(全臺、臺北市、新北市、桃園市、臺中市、高雄市)之前期批發價格對當期批發價格影響顯著，同時批發量對大部分品項於各地區別的批發價影響亦顯著。「全臺各品項全臺蔬菜、水果日批發交易量預估複迴歸模型」則因品項不同而導入不同的自變數，包括: 前期批發交易量、前期加權日均溫、前期極端溫度平方、前期總極端雨量、星期幾、盛產月份、盛產始末月份；整體模型具一定解釋能力，且各自變數大部份皆為顯著。最後，本研究依據研究結論與公開資料蒐集的過程提出對未來相關研究的方向與建議，包括：預期心理衡量、子品項選擇、進口產品影響、氣候因素的遞延效果等探討。
並列摘要
The main purpose of this research is to build the wholesale price forecast model of vegetable and fruit in Taiwan. This research intended to build the forecast model which can be updated by program automatically with open online-data. Since the wholesale prices of vegetable and fruit in Taiwan affect retail prices, building a wholesale price forecast model can help retailers and consumers react in advanced. According to literature, this research builds two models: “the wholesale price of vegetable and fruit by district forecast model” and “the overall wholesale volume of vegetable and fruit in Taiwan forecast model” with the consideration of the market reality and availability of online open data. Result of this research shows that both models perform well. Two variables in the wholesale price of vegetable and fruit by district regression model, previous wholesale price and wholesale volume, can explain the wholesale price effectively. Furthermore, the variables used in the overall wholesale volume of vegetable and fruit in Taiwan regression model include previous wholesale volume, previous weighted temperature, previous extreme rain volume, day in the week, and crop month. These variables are selected model by model according to their significance. At the end of this study, suggestions to further research are provided based on the current limitations, including: evaluation of psychological expectations, sub-category selection of targets vegetable and fruit, potential influence of import agriculture products, and the time lag effects of climate variables.
參考文獻
延伸閱讀
- 陳政綱（2015）。臺灣產地果菜批發市場研究〔碩士論文，國立臺灣大學〕。華藝線上圖書館。https://doi.org/10.6342/NTU.2015.00200
- 魯眞、王策玄（2005）。臺灣水果需求及消費型態分析。農業經濟叢刊，10(2)，125-162。https://doi.org/10.6196/TAER.2005.10.2.1
- 楊舒涵、朱堉君、林子文（2022）。臺灣重要水果產銷供應鏈競爭力盤點與分析。高雄區農業改良場年報，()，18-19。https://www.airitilibrary.com/Article/Detail?DocID=P20131024003-N202301190006-00018
- 王仕賢（2008）。Impact of Global Warming Trend on Vegetables Production in Taiwan。作物、環境與生物資訊，5(1)，76-82。https://doi.org/10.30061/CEB.200803.0008
- 胡百慶、丑宛茹（2012）。The Design of Transportation for Wholesale Markets-Case on Taipei First Wholesale Fruit and Vegetable Market。實踐設計學報，(6)，114-135。https://doi.org/10.30116/Praxes.201207.0006