併購決策影響因子之分析-以台商A家電纜廠為例

台灣超高壓電線電纜產業進入大陸市場，（1）受到大陸政府（2）電力局層層認證關卡和（3）電纜進口高關稅保護等限制下，想在大陸市場上佔有一席之地，必須進入大陸設廠並與當地電力局合資，如此才能通過產品超高壓電纜的預鑑定試驗和超高壓電纜實際運轉一年的實績和紀錄，以取得投標資格認證。大陸電線電纜生產廠家至2006年已約13000家以上；故自2007年起大陸政府限制台商進入大陸投資電線電纜廠，迫使台商不得不採用併購其國營電纜廠或於原有廠址上擴廠之因應方案。本研究即欲探討台商併購決策影響因子之分析，經由收集和分析歷史資料與財務報表，敏感度分析和龍捲風圖分析，了解影響決策因子之重要程度。研究結果得到原料成本為最具影響決策之因子，而管銷費用、利息、變動成本、固定成本與直接人工成本則不影響併購之決策。因此，原料成本如超高壓電纜良率、物料成本、品質不良重作原料成本和客戶滿意度為最具影響原料成本之因子。

關鍵字

併購；敏感度分析；龍捲風圖；影響因子；決策分析

並列摘要

The Taiwanese High Pressure Wire and Cable industry’s entrance into mainland China’s market is hindered by several factors: (1) authentication of electric power points and cable layers, (2) high tariff protection, and (3) import restrictions. Even so, in order to enter the Chinese market, one must enter a joint venture with the local Power Authority of which EHV cables need to go through product testing and pre-identification of actual operations as well as maintain annual performance records to obtain the right qualifications. In 2006, China’s wire and cable manufacturers numbered approximately 13,000. In 2007 Taiwanese investors seeking to enter China’s Wire and Cable industry had to merge with China’s state-owned cable factories or expand their existing plant sites to include China’s pre-existing plants in order to seek fulfillment of China’s regulations. This study means to discuss the effects of Taiwan’s Merger and Acquisitions decision making analysis through the collection and analysis of historical data and financial statements, sensitivity analysis and tornado diagram analysis to understand the important factors relating to the final decision making. My findings concluded that the following factors did not affect the decision: raw material costs, management and marketing cost, interest, variable costs, fixed costs, and direct labor costs. Instead, the most influential factors included the raw material costs such as extra high voltage cables yield, material costs, the low quality redo material costs, and customer satisfaction.

並列關鍵字

Merger ； Sensitivity Analysis ； Tornado Diagram ； Decision Analysis

參考文獻

[10.]Clemen, Robert T./ Reilly, Terence （2004），MAKING HARD DECISIONS， Thomson Learning。Ragsdale, C.T., Spreadsheet Modeling & Decision Analysis, Thomson/South-Western, Mason, OH, USA(2004)。

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