考量風險於地震後火災搶救與緊急醫療規劃之研究

The Study of Post-earthquake Planning for Fire Fighting and Emergency Response Considering Risks and Uncertainties

黃麒然(Chi-Jan Huang)

指導教授 ： 張寬勇

國立臺北科技大學/工程學院/工程科技研究所/博士(2010年)

摘要

2008年5月12日中國四川省發生了芮氏8.0的大地震，造成近70,000人罹難，18,830人失蹤，逾37萬人受傷，緊急安置或遷移超過1,500萬人，而我國也歷經了921集集大地震（1999年）的洗禮，因此深刻瞭解地震推估系統於應變初期時的重要性。
本文針對國家地震中心「臺灣地震損失評估系統Taiwan Earthquake Loss System－簡稱TELES」以及內政部消防署委託國立臺北科技大學土木與防災研究所張寬勇教授開發的「簡易型地震災害模擬系統Simple Earthquake Seismic System－簡稱SESS」，引用1999年規模7.3並造成臺灣大量傷亡的921集集大地震以及2009年12月於花蓮外海發生規模6.8的地震當作模擬參數，探討彙整地震初期至進行第一階段模擬的不確定因子，同時使用蒙地卡羅分析法來進行臺灣地震推估系統於人員傷亡評估的不確定分析，進而瞭解防災推估系統在地震初期的使用情況，並利用簡易型地震災害模擬系統模擬出來之人員傷亡數量，針對臺北市的病床數進行防災整備力之探討，分析地震時醫院病床數不確定性；第二階段則是利用第一階段之數據，進行地震後火災之模擬並針對臺北市的消防分隊數進行防災整備力之探討，分析地震後火災搶救的不確定性。
最後針對震後火災搶救路徑以及緊急醫療路徑進行分析與指派，當火災救災資源不足時就啟動區域聯防機制來進行救災，降低災害所造成的損失。從結果中發現臺北市對於地震後火災的救災資源仍有不足，建議透過區域聯防機制啟動補足臺北市震後火災搶救的資源；而在緊急醫療部分臺北市的醫療資源是足夠的，建議災時必須成立臨時緊急救護站，同時將傷患運送改為點對點的運送，否則地震後救護車數量就會有不足之情形發生。

關鍵字

不確定分析 ； 臺灣地震損失評估系統 ； 簡易型地震災害模擬系統 ； 蒙地卡羅分析法 ； 震後火災

並列摘要

On May 12, 2008, when a magnitude 8.0 earthquake struck in Sichuan China, it killed nearly 70 thousand people, 18,830 people were missing, more than 370 thousand people were injured and 1,500 people were arranged for emergency shelters or immediate transporting to safe places. Unfortunately, the most destructive earthquake struck Taiwan in 1999, 921 Chi-Chi Earthquake, thus deeply understands the importance of earthquake estimation system in early stage.
This study is in accordance with "Taiwan Earthquake Loss System- as TELES" of National Earthquake Center and "Simple Earthquake Seismic System- as SESS" developed by Professor Kuan-Yung Chang of National Taipei University of Technology in Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Research Institute as appointed by National Fire Agency, Ministry of Interior, and cites the 1999, 921 Chi Chi Earthquake of magnitude 7.3 which caused a large number of casualties and the December 2009 Hualian earthquake of magnitude 6.8 as simulation parameters, and compiles the early stage of an earthquake to simulate the first phase of uncertainty factors. Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to conduct Taiwan earthquake estimation system of uncertainty in analyzing casualties, in order to understand the condition of earthquake disaster prevention system in early stage, employs Simple Earthquake Seismic System to simulate the number of casualties, and analyzes the uncertainty of needs for hospital beds when earthquakes occur in accordance with the number of hospital beds in Taipei city. The second phase is to apply for the first phase data, in order to simulate post-earthquake fire fighting in accordance with Taipei city fire departments and conduct a disaster preparedness measure, and to analyze uncertainty of post-earthquake fire fighting.
Lastly, this study is in accordance with post-earthquake fire fighting route and emergency medical response route to proceed on analysis and designation. When insufficient resources occur after a fire breaks out, immediately starts zone defense mechanism to proceed on disaster relief, to reduce the cost caused by the disaster. From the results, we have found insufficient resources on post-earthquake fire fighting in Taipei city. We propose supplying enough resources in Taipei city on post-earthquake fire fighting through starting zone defense mechanism. In emergency medical part, Taipei city has sufficient medical resources. We propose must set up temporary emergency aid stations after disaster occurs, and transporting injured people from point to point, otherwise there will be insufficient ambulances to use.

並列關鍵字

Uncertainty Analysis ； Taiwan Earthquake Loss System ； Simple Earthquake Seismic System, Monte Carlo Simulation ； post-earthquake fire

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