- 學位論文
震後火災災害潛勢風險分析及管理策略之研究-以基隆市為例
The Study of Risk Analysis and Management Strategies for Earthquake Fire in Keelung City
摘要
美國1906年舊金山大地震造成492個街區因震後火災被燒毀，超過3,000人死亡，約有22.5至30萬人無家可歸；日本1923年關東大地震東京引起之震後火災約造成面積3,800公頃的地區被徹底燒毀，將近316,000棟房屋化為灰燼。臺灣都市建築物密度高、人口密集，且位於歐亞大陸板塊與菲律賓海板塊的交接處，地震頻繁造成震後火災潛勢極高；因此針對震後火災宜深入進行風險評估及管理對策，以降低震後火災衍生之災情。 本研究主要以基隆市為基礎研究地區，首先彙整歷史火災事件，進行分析歸納以辨識各行政區平時火災危險度；其次透過專家座談及問卷分析方式，釐訂震後火災危害因子及確立各危害因子之危險度；並應用簡易地震災損推估系統(Simple Earthquake Seismic System，SESS)進行震後火災境況模擬，推估震後起火件數，模擬分析基隆市各行政區震後火災發生率。由震後火災發生率及危害度推估各行政區之風險等級，據以繪製出基隆市震後火災風險潛勢圖，透過現地建築物調查結果予以驗證比對，最後針對震後火災高風險行政區，提出可行性管理對策。 藉由歷史火災事件得知，以中正區與安樂區發生件數最高，各為37件，考量建築物棟數計算平時火災危險度，以暖暖區為最高，歸因於其老舊建築物所造成，發生件數比例為平均值之1.75倍。透過專家座談及問卷分析，結合基隆市政統計資料，分析並得知以安樂區與信義區震後火災危險度最高，安樂區歸因於有高達81.71%之磚造建築，而信義區則歸因於高比例之住宅區。在震後火災境況模擬之測試中，本研究發現以安樂區與中正區的震後火災發生率為最高。經由震後火災潛勢分析與風險評估模式分析，本研究推斷暖暖區、中正區、信義區為高震後火災風險之區域，需更加謹慎的施行預防措施，以減低災害威脅。 本研究也利用現地調查之方式，遠赴香港、澳門與中國內地考察，建立單一建築物評估模式，提出老舊建築物與新建成建築之所有潛在問題。而針對基隆市23個案例進行評量與探討，其結果可知，高風險區域內之建築物調查結果亦多屬震後火災高風險群，在人命傷亡方面評定屬極嚴重之建築物中，有67%位於震後火災風險等級五之行政區。 本文建立震後火災潛勢分析與風險評估模式，可提供各縣市政府於災前據以進行震後火災風險評估，針對震後火災高風險行政區，各縣市政府事前研擬搶救災之相對應變對策，降低震後火災之災情；另提供震後火災預防管理對策，可做為各縣市都市發展處、區級應變中心、消防分隊及住宅社區震後火災危害因子之重點管理及改善參考。所提出之震後火災管理對策以基隆市現地調查案例作示範案例，所有調查得知的潛在問題(除土地使用分區與避難弱者外)，皆有相對應之對策可處理，以基隆市暖暖區之現地調查案例，約可下降30%之影響程度。
並列摘要
The San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 in the US induced 492 blocks burned by the fire and caused more than 3000 deaths. At the same time, it made about 225,000 to 300,000 people to be homeless. The fire by the Kanto Earthquake of 1923 in Japan had burned about 3800ha area in Tokyo, and completely destroyed about 316,000 houses into ashes.The cities in Taiwan are with intensive constructions and high population. At the same time, Taiwan is located at the junction between the Eurasian Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate which makes the high frequency of earthquakes and high possibility of post-earthquake fire. Therefore, it shall have risk evaluation and control plan toward post-earthquake fire for reducing the damage by the fire. This research is taking Keelung City as the studied area. First of all, it induces the risk of fire in each administrative district separately under normal conditions by analyzing the historical fires. After that, it develops the factors of the risk in fire, and makes sure the level of the risk in all the factors by having interviews with experts and analyzing the questionnaire. At the same time, it uses Simple Earthquake Seismic System to stimulate the post-earthquake fires, and analyzes the probability of having post-earthquake fires in all the administrative districts in Keelung City by estimating the cases of post-earthquake fires. It concludes the risk level in different districts by the probability of having post-earthquake fires and the damage from fire, then having the potential risk map for post-earthquake fires in Keelung City. Based on the map, it compares with the investigation result toward real building. At least, it proposes the control strategies toward the high risk administrative districts in having post-earthquake fires. By checking the historical fires, it has the most cases in Zhongzheng Dist. and Anle Dist. which is 37 cases per each district. By considering the amount of buildings for estimating the risk of fire in normal conditions, Nuannuan Dist. is having the highest risk in having fire due to the old buildings, and the ratio is 1.75 times from the average. By the interviews with experts, analyzing the questionnaire, and the statistical data from Keelung Government, it concludes that Anle Dist. and Xinyi Dist. are in the highest risk of having post-earthquake fires, which is because Anle Dist. has 81.71% of buildings are made by bricks and Xinyi Dist. has higher intensity of housing area. By the stimulation of having post-earthquake fires, this research finds that Anle Dist. and Zhongzheng Dist. are having the highest probability of having post-earthquake fires. After analyzing the potential risk of having post-earthquake fires by considering the risk evaluation model, this research concludes Nuannuan Dist., Zhongzheng Dist., and Xinyi Dist. are the areas with higher risk in having post-earthquake fires. Therefore, it shall have preventive plans for reducing threaten of disaster. This research is also having real survey in Hong Kong, Macao, and Mainland China for establishing the evaluation model in single building to list all potential problems in both old buildings and new buildings. By checking, evaluating and studying the 23 cases in Keelung City, it finds out that the buildings in high risk districts are also in high risk of having post-earthquake fires. By estimating the worst buildings might have most casualties, 67% of buildings are also in the districts with level 5 risk of having post-earthquake fires. The model for analyzing and estimating the potential risk of post-earthquake fires made by this research is able to be used for evaluating the risk of post-earthquake fires by the governments in all the counties and cities before the disaster happens. The governments may have the relevant plans in relieving the victims for reducing the damage of disaster toward the administrative districts in high risk of having post-earthquake fires. On the other hand, this research also provides the strategies in preventing post-earthquake fires. The strategies can be provided to the urban development bureaus, emergency response centers, and fire fighting branches for controlling the factors of having post-earthquake fires in communities and being as a reference for improving the problems. By using the strategies of controlling the factors in having post-earthquake fires based on this research, all the potential risks (except division in using lands and taking refuge for weakness) in shall have relevant strategies for reducing the problems. By taking the real study in Nuannuan Dist., Keelung as the studied case, it might be able to reduce about 30% of damage.