台灣地區共同基金投資行為實證研究

An Empirical Research of Fund Investors Behavior in Taiwan

鄭芳盈(Fang Ying Cheng)

指導教授 ： 吳忠敏

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/商業自動化與管理研究所/碩士(2007年)

摘要

以客戶的風險屬性，搭配行銷策略，以使客戶在可以承受的風險承度下獲取最大的報酬，及提高利潤貢獻度，為銀行在此競爭激烈的金融環境中最佳的策略方向。
回顧歷年基金相關文獻皆深究於基金本身之投資報酬，並未就基金投資人去探討其投資報酬及其影響因素。
故本研究首度將研究標的放在國內某民營金控投資人的基金交易，資料期間為民國85年至96年共計142個月之共同基金交易資料。
研究結果發現，就性別來說，男、女性的報酬率並無顯著差異；在教育程度的差異上，博碩士的投資報酬率明顯較高，高中職及以下者其投資報酬率明顯較低；偏好債券型基金者其報酬率較高，偏好股票型基金者其報酬率為負的機率較高；高風險偏好的投資報酬率為負的較多；曾定期定額申購者較能獲取正報酬；交易年資愈高的投資者其投資報酬率也愈高。
在分類的正確率方面，正確率最高的為倒傳遞類神經網路模型，獲得72.41%的正確率，CART分類樹模型也有71.07%的正確率，顯示本研究所得到的模型，具有穩定且正確的分類效果。

關鍵字

共同基金 ； 倒傳遞類神經網路 ； 分類與迴歸樹

並列摘要

The purpose of this research is to explore the correlation between fund operation performance and characteristics of investors. By analyzing the transaction performance in fund transactions of 34,331 natural persons in a sample period of 12 years starting April 1996 ending January 2007, this research tries to generalize a conclusion for the relationship between scattered individual investors and the rate of return of their fund operations. A model was built to further explore the correlation between two variables, namely, individual investors fund performance and characteristics of these scattered small investors.
The results are briefly listed as followed:
There is no significant difference between male and female while exploring the correlation between rate of return and gender. Nevertheless, most doctor and master degree people have positive rate of return. Bond fund lovers have higher rate of return. In contrast with bond fund, stock fund lovers often take negative return rate. We can conclude that the better policy for mutual fund investment is to buy and hold.
Further probing the model built, this study discovers that investors experience of transaction is a main factor affecting rate of return of his fund investment. Aside from the aforementioned findings, this study uses the model built by means of Back-Propagation Networks and CART model to verify the accuracy of this study in characterizing. The BPN model shows 72.41% accuracy, and CART model shows 71.17%. Theses results confirmed the outcome of this study is stable and correct.

並列關鍵字

Mutual Fund ； Back-Propagation Networks ； CART

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