- 學位論文
使用專利共引證分析光儲存產業技術發展軌跡與技術生命週期預測之研究
Using Patent Co-citation Approach to Explore Technology Trajectory and Technology Life Cycle Forecasting for Optical Storage Technology
摘要
現今藍光技術已應用於資訊儲存、汽車電子、影音家電等市場，隨著消費者對於影音娛樂品質需求越來越高，光儲存產業也邁向更多元的方向發展。本研究分為二個部分，第一個部分以專利分析與技術生命週期預測分析DVD技術與藍光技術，包含兩者之子產品分類與市場發展比較。第二個部分利用專利共引證分析(Patent co-citation approach, PCA)藍光技術專利，以了解藍光技術之關鍵領域，再次進行各領域之技術生命週期預測。觀察二個部分之DVD與藍光各領域發展，以提供光儲存產業發展之建議與管理意涵。 藍光專利利用專利共引證分析(PCA)可分析出8個分類，結果顯示一致性指標達到95.6%，而加權可分類專利指標達67.3%，表明此分類具有良好之績效。DVD與藍光整體技術都預測出約在2014年至2015年進入飽和期，藍光技術之播放器、影片與影像之產品子分類仍有成長空間，PCA分析後之Image processing and display與Piracy protection and theft deterrent亦有成長空間，可考慮投資。
關鍵字
Digital Video Disc (DVD) ； 藍光 ； 專利分析 ； 技術生命週期 ； Logistic ； 技術生命週期預測 ； S曲線 ； 專利共引證分析 ； Patent co-citation approach(PCA) ； 技術分類。並列摘要
Optical storage technology has been applied to the market for information storage, automotive electronics, and audio appliances. With the rising need for audio entertainment quality, optical storage industries become more blooming and diverse. This study aims to identify the technological intensity of the optical disc industry and predict the life cycles of the technology development and marketplace. The study is divided into two parts. First, patent analysis and technology life cycle forecasting are used to foresee the technologies of DVD and Blu-ray Disc, including the sub-classifications and their market. Second, patent co-citation approach (PCA) is applied to find the key fields of Blu-ray Disc technology, and then forecast the technology life cycle of Blu-ray Disc key fields. The study concludes that DVD and Blu-ray technologies will reach saturation period from 2014 to 2015. The sub-classification of Blu-ray player and video have not reached the saturation period yet and thus have potential growth. Furthermore, this study adopts the PCA to classify BD related patents into eight categories. The result shows the consistency index is 95.6% and the weight cover index is 67.3% and indicates great classification performance.