趕工策略與風險考量下，專案評估模式之研究

The Construction of a Evaluation Model for Project Crashing Strategy and Project Risk

李俊辰(Jiun-Chen Lee)

指導教授 ： 林逾先

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/商業自動化與管理研究所/碩士(2011年)

https://doi.org/10.6841/NTUT.2011.00277

摘要

由於專案具有特定的目標、明確的時程、限制的成本、複雜性、非經常性、無經驗和不確定性等特性，造成了專案的時程皆難以準確評估的現象，以致於在評估專案的合理性與可行性上，只能依據過往執行的專案或是經驗來概估專案，在某個時程下完工的機率，也因此往往造成許多的延誤與損失。
過去在專案趕工問題的相關研究，多侷限於專案排程的趕工策略發展，或專案排程的時間/成本權衡問題。卻鮮少有研究同時考量專案趕工策略與專案風險的關聯性，因此本研究針對專案管理這部份研究上的不足提出探討。
本研究目的旨在於發展一套專案評估模式，使專案在規劃時，利用最佳化模式計算專案的時程與最小化成本，再經由PERT和PENT兩種衡量專案完工機率的方法，結合時程、成本和風險三項數據作為評估指標，量化專案之可行性，使得經理人能在專案的前置期有更多的在管理以及策略上的考量，讓專案可以在合理的狀況與評估下，大量降低企業的商譽與成本損失之風險，並提升專案在目標時間內完成之可能性。

關鍵字

間/成本權衡問題 ； 線性規劃 ； 計畫評核術 ； 或然率網圖評核術

並列摘要

Due to the project characteristics in goal, schedule, cost, complexity, impermanence and unfamiliarity, proper evaluation of the project duration becomes difficult. As a result, one can only rely on past experience or project history to evaluate the probability of project completion within a certain timeframe. This has thus led to some loss due to the project delay.
In the past, most of the researches were focused on project crashing strategies, or project time/cost trade-off problem. Very few researches have addressed the relationship between project crashing strategy and project risk. Therefore, this research investigates the issues in this area.
This research develops a project evaluation mode to calculate project duration and cost. It then uses PERT, PNET, together with time, cost, and risk factors to evaluate the project feasibility before project execution. It allows the project managers to use three indicators to address more strategic concerns for management purpose. It provides a reasonable evaluation approach to enhance the probability of completing a project within the specified timeframe so as to avoid the project cost loss and reputation damage.

並列關鍵字

Time/Cost Trade-off Problem ； Linear Programming ； PERT ； PNET

參考文獻

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