- 學位論文
太陽能電池蝕刻率灰預測模式之研究
A Grey Prediction Model for the Etch Rate of Solar Cell
摘要
近年來由於能源危機的議題及環保意識的提升使得太陽能電池產業在國內蓬勃發展。在太陽能電池製程中蝕刻率和電池效能有著密不可分的關係，為了有效掌握蝕刻率的變化且又要避免成本的浪費，建立一個蝕刻率預測模式是相當需要的，利用灰色預測模式少數據且操作簡單等優點可以得到相當不錯的預測結果。本文利用蝕刻率週期性震盪的特性，將傳統灰色理論加入傅立葉殘差修正，進一步提高預測的精準度，並且利用模糊決策的方式來調整因手動補酸而造成的蝕刻率變化，在預測時，也將背景值做優化，使預測達到最佳效果。文中以馬可夫殘差修正做比較，結果證實傅立葉殘差修正有較好之預測效果。本文採實際生產時之蝕刻率做為依據，準確預測蝕刻率，可提供製程工程師做製程參數調整的參考及有效減少復機時間和節省經費等優點。
並列摘要
In recent years, the issue of resource crises and the promotion of awareness on environment protection have driven the upsurge of solar cell industry in Taiwan. In the production process of solar cell, etch rate and performance of the cell is complementary to each other. In order to well control the variation of etch rate and simultaneously avoid waste of cost, it is a must to construct a prediction model for etch rate. The model of grey prediction can generate excellent results thanks to its advantages that it requires little data and its operation is simple. This article employed the characteristic of periodic oscillation in etch rate to enter traditional grey theory into Fourier residual error correction to further boost accuracy of prediction, and adopted the pattern of fuzzy decision to adjust the variation of etch rate caused by manually acid replenishing. During prediction, the background values were optimized to allow the best performance in prediction. In comparison with Markov residual error correction, the result shows that Fourier residual error correction created better prediction result. This study accurately predicted etch rate based on the etch rate yielded during production, which allows the process engineer to adjust process parameters accordingly and displays the advantage in effectively reducing time required for machine recovery and costs.