臺灣觀光旅館營收預測模式之研究

Forecast Model of Total Revenue of Tourist Hotel in Taiwan

黃詩珉(Shih-Min Huang)

指導教授 ： 林逾先

國立臺北科技大學/管理學院/經營管理系碩士班/碩士(2013年)

摘要

近年來觀光業儼然已成為台灣最重要的產業之一，而在觀光業中有極大部分的收益是來自於觀光旅館業之營業收入。本研究欲以“消費者物價指數”、“來台觀光人次”及“觀光旅館業住房率”來建構一“觀光旅館業總營收”之預測模型，並從中找出各個自變數對依變數“觀光旅館業總營收”之影響程度。
本研究以民國90年至101年每月資料進行迴歸分析，資料來源為台灣經濟新報資料庫（TEJ）及交通部觀光局。經由複迴歸得出之最適迴歸模型之解釋度達到76.2%並符合迴歸分析的先驗條件（殘差項具常態性、同質性及獨立性）。經代入自變數實際值進行檢驗發現，依變數實際值確實落於此模型之95%信賴區間內。研究結果顯示，“消費者物價指數”、“來台觀光人次”及“觀光旅館業住房率”皆會對“觀光旅館業總營收”產生正向影響。

關鍵字

預測 ； 迴歸分析 ； 觀光旅館業總營收

並列摘要

Tourism has become one of the most import industries in Taiwan recently. A significant amount of tourism revenue comes from the revenues of all tourist hotels. This research establishes a forecast model that incorporates the independent variables of “consumer price index”, “number of sightseeing visitors” and “hotel occupancy rate” to find their impact on the dependent variable of “revenue of all tourist hotels” in Taiwan.
We use the monthly data from January, 2001 to December, 2012 in the regression analysis. This set of data comes from Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) and Tourism Bureau of the Republic of China (Taiwan). The most suitable regression model identified from multiple regression has it R-square reading reaching as high as 76.2%. The follow-up diagnostic test on the properties of residuals, namely, the normal distribution, equal variance and mutually independent indicates the adequacy of this model. To further examine the validity of this model, we found that the actual “revenue of all tourist hotels” in Taiwan for the test period falls inside of the 95% confidence interval of fitted dependent variable constructed using the independent variables. Our model shows that“consumer price index” , “number of sightseeing visitors” and “hotel occupancy rate” all has a positive effect on the “revenue of all tourist hotels” in Taiwan.

並列關鍵字

Total revenue of tourist hotel ； Regression analysis ； Forecast

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