- 學位論文
模糊多目標階段式預算分配專案管理決策模式
Fuzzy Multi-objective and Stage-type Budget Allocation of Project Management Decision-making Model
摘要
本研究應用可能性線性規劃於專案管理多目標決策問題，包括總專案成本、總完工時程及總趕工成本三項極小化目標。建構模式其首要考量在於現實生活中掌握的資訊不夠完整，無法收集充足的資料以決定各種狀況發生的機率，在決定各項任務期望成本與時間上遇到艱巨的麻煩；本研究便根據此問題，提出模糊理論應用在可能性預估上，利用三角模糊分配將這些參數資料模式化；其次，由於經濟通貨膨脹的影響力，估算專案內各項任務成本將考慮貨幣時間價值，透過現金流量貼現法分析現金流量，並根據分析結果決定階段式分配預算方式。最後，兩階段法依序運用極大極小算子與加權因子分析模式求解此模糊多目標階段式預算分配專案管理決策模式，其隸屬函數產生極大隸屬值將提供專案經理針對此複雜之問題選擇合適的方案，以便決定能否在需求時間、有限資金及可利用資源內完成，並在多個衝突目標取得妥協之下，使專案經理獲得較佳的整體滿意度。
並列摘要
In this study, the possibility of linear programming in multi-objective project management decisions, including the total project cost, total completion time and total crash cost of three minimization objectives. Its top priority is not enough information to grasp of building model in real life, so unable to collect and determine the incidence of various conditions. Therefore, formulating these expect cost and time will be difficult problems encountered. This research applied fuzzy theory to estimate the probability on above problem. First using triangular fuzzy distribution to model these parameters’ data; Second, because the impact of economic inflation, the estimated cost of the project must consider all the tasks within currency time value, and through discounted cash flow to analysis present value. In addition, decision-making the stage budget how to allocate based on results of the analysis. Finally, the two-phase approach using the sequence that the max-min operator and the weighted factor analysis model to solve the fuzzy multi-objective stage budget allocation of project management decision-making. Its greatly membership value will provide the project management to decision for this complex problem to select the appropriate alternative in order to determine whether the time of demand, limited funds and resources available to complete. In other words, this work is that obtain a better overall satisfaction of project management under the compromise of conflicting goals.