- 學位論文
地震後火災消防單位救災能力之研究
Analysis of Rescue Capabilities of Fire-Fighting Units after Earthquake
摘要
台灣位於歐亞大陸板塊與菲律賓海板塊交接處，共有42處活斷層，造成頻繁的地震活動，如1999年集集大地震造成台灣嚴重社會經濟損失，一旦在都市地區發生重大地震及震後火災，將有可能超出消防單位搶救之能力，進而造成更大之損失。 本文模擬假設位於台灣台北市西北部的山腳斷層所引起的地震，所使用之分析方法蒙地卡羅模擬，為可靠度分析工具之一，配合簡易型地震災損推估系統，推估出台灣台北市震後火災件數，再從模擬結果分析台北市各區地震後火災可承受風險機率，最後再藉由區域聯防機制支援高度危險的風險行政地區。 本研究顯示台北市可承受風險機率未達60％以上者共有8個行政地區，佔全體行政地區66.7％（8/12），而透過區域聯防的支援方式，台北市可承受風險機率未達60％以上者共有3個行政地區，佔全體行政地區25.0％（3/12），因此經區域聯防整合支援後，可承受風險機率為60％以上者可增加41.7％。
並列摘要
Taiwan is located in the joint between the Eurasia plate and the Philippine Sea plate, which contains 42 active faults that cause frequent seismic activities. For example, the Chichi earthquake in 1999 caused severe losses in Taiwan. Once a major earthquake occurred in urban areas and post-earthquake fire, it will be possible beyond the ability of the rescue capabilities of fire-fighting units, and cause even greater losses. This study simulated an earthquake caused by the Shanjiao fault in northwestern Taipei, Taiwan, and applied the Monte Carlo simulation as an analytic method for reliability analysis. Using the simple earthquake seismic system (SESS), this study deduced the number of fire incidents after that earthquake, and analyzed the post-earthquake fire risk tolerance probability levels of the different districts of Taipei City. The results showed that the 8 administrative districts of Taipei City have a risk tolerance probability level below 60%, accounting for 66.7% of all administrative districts (8/12). In the support mode of regional mutual aid, 3 administrative districts of Taipei City have a risk tolerance probability level below 60%, accounting for 25.0% of all administrative districts (3/12). Therefore, the districts with a risk tolerance probability level above 60% can be increased by 41.7%, as based on regional mutual aid.